The market finished mixed Wednesday as Apple and Alphabet propped up the S&P 500 while semiconductor weakness pulled the Nasdaq lower. ASML pulled in soft earnings, United's beat was hit with a fuel tax, while banks fell and asset managers climbed on morning reports.

Communication Services led at +1.7%, while Technology fell -1.1% as Micron and Intel undercut gains elsewhere. The split showed investors still wanted mega-cap growth, just not every corner of the AI trade.

Oil climbed, and a tanker sank in the Strait after hitting a mine. Oil flows there are back to pre-peace deal speeds. Producer Price Index data showed wholesale prices slowed their climb, another sign war inflation may have hit a spring peak.

Stocktwits traders chased PayPal’s reported buyout while turning bearish on Gorilla’s second convertible raise in six weeks.

Today's Briefing:

United Airlines, the global carrier built around hubs in Chicago, Newark, and Houston, beat quarterly estimates Wednesday but dropped after hours as surging jet-fuel costs overwhelmed strong bookings and higher fares.

The RIP: $UAL fell -4.5% after hours. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.99 vs. $1.88 expected, while revenue reached $17.67B vs. $17.61B. Third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $2.50 to $3.50 missed the $3.60 consensus. Jet fuel has risen 34% in July.

Demand was not the problem. Revenue rose 16%, unit revenue jumped 12.1%, and capacity expanded 3.5% as premium, corporate, domestic, and international ticket sales improved. Fuel is eating the benefit.

United’s second-quarter fuel expense surged 84% to $2.3B, and current prices could add nearly $6B to 2026 costs compared with its January assumptions. Management expects higher fares to recover up to 90% of the increase this quarter and all of it during the fourth quarter.

The $UAL room is 55% bear on the fuel bill, track the reaction ->

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SpaceX, the rocket, satellite broadband, and AI company, fell below its IPO price Wednesday as lockup fears and an increasingly crowded short trade punctured the postlisting hype.

The RIP: $SPCX closed -0.6% at $135.27 after hitting $132.15 intraday, below its $135 IPO price set June 12. The stock has fallen 40% from its $225.64 June 16 high, erasing $860B in market value. Short sellers hold 181M shares, or 28% of the tradable float.

The selling is less about one bad headline than supply meeting gravity. SpaceX’s first earnings report is expected within weeks, opening a stretch of lockup expirations that will allow millions of additional shares to hit the market. Wall Street has not abandoned ship. 27 of 31 analysts rate SpaceX Buy or Strong Buy, with a $242 average target, while Needham raised its target to $250.

The $SPCX room is 65% bear on the lockup, follow the fallout ->

PayPal, the digital payments platform behind its namesake checkout button and Venmo, surged Wednesday after Reuters reported that Stripe and Advent International submitted an unsolicited buyout proposal. The offer gives new CEO Enrique Lores an immediate test: cash out or bet he can rebuild growth.

The RIP: $PYPL jumped +17.2% to $55.51. Stripe and Advent offered $60.50 per share, valuing PayPal above $53B, with $50B of bank financing committed. Each buyer would own 50%, and the proposal represents a 28% premium to Tuesday’s close.

The stock still fell 9% below the offer price, signaling investors are not treating this as a completed deal. PayPal has not responded, and William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey argued Lores is unlikely to accept what shareholders may view as a lowball offer. Michael Burry was blunter: the bid will have to rise.

The valuation fight is not frivolous. PayPal generated $6.4B in adjusted free cash flow during 2025, putting the proposal near eight times that figure. But the stock entered Wednesday down 18% year to date and 35% over 12 months as Apple Pay, Stripe, Block, Affirm, and Klarna crowded the checkout lane.

A higher offer or competing bidder would extend the rally. A rejection without either could return attention to the turnaround Lores was hired to fix.

61% of the $PYPL room calls the bid too low, check the split ->

Gorilla Technology cratered Wednesday after unveiling its second convertible financing in six weeks. The cash will fund major AI infrastructure deployments, but shareholders saw mounting debt, potential dilution and another hit to management credibility.

The RIP: $GRRR collapsed -29.1% to $11.89 after pricing $125M of 7.5% convertible notes due 2031. The initial conversion price is $25.48, a 52% premium to Tuesday’s close. Combined with June’s $107M offering, Gorilla has raised $232M in convertible debt in six weeks.

The new capital is earmarked for Gorilla’s five-year, $2.5B AI data center project in Indonesia. Bulls view the raise as necessary funding for a massive recurring revenue opportunity. Bears are questioning why Gorilla is using expensive convertible debt instead of borrowing against the contracts themselves.

60% of the $GRRR room is bearish on the financing, get the debate →

$JNJ Johnson & Johnson: fell -2.7% despite adjusted EPS of $2.90 vs. $2.86 and revenue of $25.31B vs. $25.05B. Tremfya and Darzalex powered the beat, helping management raise its 2026 outlook.

$MS Morgan Stanley: gained +0.4% after EPS hit $3.46 vs. $2.93 and revenue reached $21.3B vs. $19.6B. Trading and investment banking drove record revenue, though the stock’s muted reaction suggests expectations were already doing cardio.

$BLK BlackRock: jumped +6.6% after adjusted EPS of $13.91 topped $12.59. Assets under management reached a record $15.34T, while quarterly inflows totaled $192B.

$PNC PNC Financial: climbed +0.9% after adjusted EPS reached $4.85 vs. $4.46 and revenue jumped 21% to $6.88B. Higher lending and fee income helped fund an 18% dividend increase.

ASML, the only maker of EUV lithography machines needed for advanced chips, raised its outlook Wednesday and expanded production plans as AI demand pulled customer orders further into the future.

The RIP: $ASML rose +2.2%. Q2 sales were €9.33B vs. €8.80B expected, while net income reached €2.92B vs. €2.62B. Full-year sales guidance increased to €43B-€45B from €36B-€40B.

Nearly all expanded EUV capacity through 2027 is already booked, with substantial orders secured for 2028. ASML plans to boost EUV and advanced DUV capacity by roughly 30% in each of the next two years.

That supports the spending outlook for customers like TSMC, Micron, and SK Hynix. Pricing power could add margin upside, though customer resistance and tighter restrictions on China sales remain the two pressure points.

78% of $ASML traders are bullish on the capacity hike, track the reaction →

$ELVA ( ▲ 49.05% ) Electrovaya ⚡: soared +46% after Amazon signed battery supply and warrant deal

$AAPL ( ▲ 0.17% ) Apple ⚡: climbed +4% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target

$ELV ( ▼ 8.54% ) Elevance Health: tumbled -9% after profit forecast increase trailed elevated expectations

$PGR ( ▲ 1.68% ) Progressive: fell -10% after June net income sank 31% year over year

$PNR ( ▼ 15.0% ) Pentair: cratered -15% after pool destocking forced sharp guidance cut

$ASTS ( ▼ 3.65% ) AST SpaceMobile ⚡: collapsed -16% after proposing a $1B convertible senior note offering

🏠 Jamie Dimon has a warning about Anthropic's most powerful AI model

💰 Michael Burry Says $53B Offer For PayPal Is 'Simply Too Low' – ‘The Big Short’ Investor Expects Higher Bid

📺 Warren Buffett on the market today: ‘It’s tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling’

👀 Anthropic moves closer to mega-IPO as bankers line up investor meetings

Macro: Retail sales (8:30 AM ET), Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET), Business inventories (10:00 AM ET), Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks (12:30 PM ET), Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks (7:00 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $GE GE Aerospace, $UNH Unitedhealth Group Inc, $AVXL Anavex Life Sciences Corporation, $ABT Abbott Laboratories, $HOVR New Horizon Aircraft Ltd - Ordinary Shares - Class A, +2 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $NFLX Netflix Inc., $ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc, $AA Alcoa Corp. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎

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