The market fell again Tuesday, down nearly a full 1% this week, as the ten year closed above 5%, and mortgage rates trended toward 7%. It’s rate day tomorrow, for those that celebrate, everyone and their brother expects poor Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to announce at least a 25 basis point hike, bringing the target Federal Funds rate up to 4% again.

The last time the ten-year hit 5%, the FOMC rates followed, but then the bond market bought up the dip big time, dropping the rate to 3.8 three months later. Of course, back then the U.S. was not at war with Iran that cost $3B every month, nor in a trade war with everyone else, and oil supplies were not cut by bombings and mines hitting Gulf states.

In Washington, the Clarity Act failed yet again to pass a procedural vote in the Senate. Stocktwits heat clustered around $COIN, $CRCL, $QXO, $AMZN, and $BMNR. Coinbase, Circle, and Amazon carried bearish readings into the close.

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Amazon’s cloud division said Tuesday it cannot recover some customer data stored at facilities in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates that were damaged during the U.S.-Iran conflict.

The RIP: $AMZN ( ▼ 2.02% ) fell -2.0% to $248.42, closing near its session low on nearly 36M shares.

CNBC reported that March drone strikes hit two Amazon data centers in the UAE and damaged a Bahrain site. Customers with external backups could restore their workloads elsewhere, but data stored only inside the damaged facilities is gone.

AWS suspended local billing and told customers to move any remaining accessible resources. Six months after the strikes, this stopped being an outage and became permanent data loss.

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Main stage keynotes span public and private markets — Nvidia, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Databricks, Arm, Cerebras, Crusoe, Vercel, DoorDash, 8VC and more — with breakout tracks across labs, silicon, power and capital. 

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Coinbase runs the country’s largest publicly traded crypto exchange, Circle issues the USDC stablecoin, and BitMine Immersion has become a giant leveraged bet on ether. All three fell Tuesday after the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, which promised the industry its first comprehensive federal rulebook.

The RIP: $CRCL ( ▼ 11.41% ) sank -11.4%, $COIN ( ▼ 10.1% ) fell -10.1%, and $BMNR ( ▼ 8.39% ) lost -8.4%. The procedural motion failed 49-50, well short of the 60 votes needed to move the bill toward a final Senate vote.

The bipartisan proposed, bipartisan supported, and bipartisan blocked bill aims to make it easier for companies like Coinbase to be banks by issuing interest-bearing tokens. (Among other things). After more than a year in negotiations, the legislation clarifies how digital assets are regulated. The goal is to make it easier for crypto companies to operate inside the mainstream financial system.

Opponents say they want to limit the ability for elected officials to take advantage of crypto projects to mint money for their idiot sons. Of course, that’s already against the law. And yet, the rash of anti-self-dealing measures Republican proponents of the bill added over the weekend was not enough. Crypto stocks were hurt on the news. Banks also hate the bill because they make money by being banks.

The Wall Street Journal reported that banks opposed interest-like rewards offered by stablecoin platforms, arguing that the payouts could pull deposits from community banks and threaten regional lending. Basically, that's their whole business. A revised version would have allowed the Treasury secretary to restrict those rewards if banks suffered substantial deposit flight.

The revised ethics language would have required covered officials to divest crypto holdings or place them in a qualified blind trust, but the restrictions would not have extended to President Trump’s sons, who run the family’s crypto businesses. Trump reported earning more than $1.4B from crypto ventures last year.

The failed vote hits each stock differently. Circle loses a possible federal framework for stablecoins, Coinbase loses a path toward friendlier trading rules, and BitMine remains exposed to whatever the uncertainty does to Ether. Another Senate vote is unclear, supportes of the bill seem tired of editing it, and Kalshi traders put the bill’s odds of becoming law by July 2027 at roughly 12%.

The Community Read: The $COIN room is bearish, see the post-vote price fight ->

Salesforce’s Dreamforce became the stage for AI’s biggest argument Tuesday. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged companies to pace frontier-model development, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called speed versus safety a “false choice,” CNBC reported.

The RIP: $NVDA ( ▲ 0.57% ) gained +0.6%, while $CRM fell -1.5%. The debate played out before roughly 12,000 people during Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff’s keynote.

Huang said developers should move quickly but pause when a product becomes unsafe or uncontrollable. A day earlier, he joined President Trump in rejecting AI takeover predictions, as the president called in live during Huang's fireside chat. Axios reported that Huang separately said whistleblower warnings deserve serious attention.

Salesforce kept building through the argument, unveiling a reasoning model for Agentforce based on Nvidia’s Nemotron technology.

The Community Read: The latest $NVDA reading is neutral, see the safety split ->

The FOMC delivers its decision Wednesday, with markets expecting the first rate hike since 2023. Traders will focus on whether officials see another increase coming.

The RIP: Fed funds futures price a 92.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4%. The decision arrives at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.

August inflation reached 3.4%, crude is back above $100, and the 10-year Treasury touched 5.04% Tuesday. The dot plot will show whether the Fed expects a one-and-done move or a longer hiking cycle, the outcome that matters most for tech, housing, and regional banks.

16.5K WATCHERS · BULLISH · EXTREMELY HIGH ACTIVITY

Skyworks rebounded after CEO Philip Brace said its Qorvo merger remains on track to close this calendar year, reversing Monday’s AI-driven selloff and extending its September gain.

15.3K WATCHERS · BEARISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Axon proposed $1B of 0% convertible notes due 2031, plus a $150M underwriter option, sending shares to their worst session since Aug. 7.

98.3K WATCHERS · BEARISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

JPMorgan expects third-quarter investment-banking fees and markets revenue to grow in the mid- to high teens from last year, even as trading cools from a record second quarter.

Bearish 🐻 | Bullish 🐮 | It’s Complicated 😵‍💫

Macro: Retail sales (8:30 AM ET), Import prices (8:30 AM ET), GDPNow (9:00 AM ET), FOMC Press Release (9:00 AM ET), Treasury International Capital: Continuous Securities Long Term (CSLT) (9:00 AM ET), +4 more. 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $ZENA ZenaTech Inc.. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $LEN Lennar Corp. - Ordinary Shares - Class A, $ALMU Aeluma Inc. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

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