NEWS
Bulls Hold The Latest Line

Inflation fears have been replaced by recession concerns, with today’s consumer price index giving the bulls enough confidence to battle back. Technology stocks led the rebound, with retail earnings weighing on consumer-focused sectors. Bulls now have yesterday’s low to manage risk against as they venture onward. 👀 

Today's issue covers cooling consumer prices, Intel’s CEO appointment, forgotten retail favorites finding interest, and more from a busy day on Wall Street. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 5 of 11 sectors closed green, with technology (+1.57%) leading and consumer staples (-2.17%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

STOCKS
Stocks Rebound As Inflation Cools 🌡️ 

U.S. consumer prices rose less than anticipated during February, with CPI up 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY. Estimates of headline inflation were +0.3% and +2.9%. 🔻 

Core inflation also came in 10 bps lower than expected at 0.2% MoM and 3.1%, its smallest increase since April 2021. Once again, shelter prices rose 0.3% MoM and accounted for nearly half of the monthly increase in inflation, with a decline in airline fares and gasoline offsetting the rise.

Analysts saw this as a positive sign that inflation’s acceleration risk is not as high as previous months’ readings indicated, especially as the sell-off in risk assets and macroeconomic uncertainty impact consumer and business confidence. 👍️ 

Tomorrow’s Producer Price Index reading will be the final look at inflation before the Fed’s rate decision next week. While no policy action is anticipated, Jerome Powell’s commentary will take center stage as the market looks for policy clues.

This catalyst was enough for bulls to mount a small comeback today in stocks and other risk assets. With yesterday’s lows holding, traders and investors now have a clear level to trade against vs. blindly buying the dip and hoping for the best. We’ll all be watching those lows closely to see if the positivity can continue. 👀 

Meanwhile, American Eagle Outfitters joined the list of retailers who warned that their first quarter is off to a slower-than-expected start due to colder weather and weaker consumer confidence. While many executives expect business to rebound in the second half of 2025, they’re currently bracing for a cooldown until the economy finds its footing again. 🥶 

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