Consumer Confidence Cruises Higher

Americans' big bet on stocks, China's latest pump-and-dump, and earnings movers and shakers.

NEWS
Consumer Confidence Cruises Higher

Source: Tenor.com

Bulls remain in charge ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with money rotating back into tech and several other large/mega-cap leaders. Bitcoin is taking a break from flirting with the elusive $100,000 level, but risk appetite in the equity markets remains intact as we all prep for the final trading days of November. šŸ‘€

Today's issue covers the surge in consumer confidence, popular retail and tech earnings results, and an explanation of the latest Chinese pump-and-dump. šŸ“°

Hereā€™s the S&P 500 heatmap. 9 of 11 sectors closed green, with utilities (+1.59%) leading and materials (-0.75%) lagging.

Source; Finviz.com

And here are the closing prices: 

S&P 500

6,022

+0.57%

Nasdaq

19,176

+0.63%

Russell 2000

2,424

-0.73%

Dow Jones

44,860

+0.28%

Most bullish/bearish symbols on Stocktwits at the close: šŸ“ˆ $HSAI, $AMBA, $VSEE, $JWN, $ADSK šŸ“‰ $HPQ, $SMTC, $STLA, $RMCO, $GPUS*

*If youā€™re a business and want to access this data via our API, email us.

STOCKS
Americans See Clear Skies Ahead šŸ¤” 

The Conference Boardā€™s first consumer confidence survey since the election provided a fresh perspective on Americans' attitudes toward the economy.

Novemberā€™s consumer confidence index ticked up 2.1 points to 111.7, led by a sharp increase in the ā€œpresent situation indexā€ and a nominal uptick in expectations. Itā€™s now at the top of the range thatā€™s prevailed over the last two years, driven by consumers feeling more optimistic about the current job market.

With the election over, part of the sharp jump in the ā€œpresent situationā€ and ā€œexpectationsā€ indexes likely came from a perception of conditions rather than actual ones. As we know, peopleā€™s views of the economy and market are highly politicized. However, the fact that this move aligns with the recent trend reiterates an overarching theme of improving ā€œvibes.ā€ šŸ‘ļø 

Interestingly, the perceived likelihood of a U.S. recession continues to fall, even as the labor market softens. This category reached the lowest level since the survey began asking the question in July 2022. šŸ§‘ā€šŸ’¼ 

From a stock market perspective, the percentage of Americans who believe stock prices will move higher over the next 12 months reached a record high of 56% (since the inception of this survey). Weā€™ve referenced the overwhelming optimism around U.S. stocks for several months, and that trend shows no sign of slowing down. šŸ¤© 

Meanwhile, the Fedā€™s November meeting minutes showed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts (at a gradual pace). Markets expect the Fed to cut another 25 bps in December, but the picture becomes a lot murkier into 2025 when a shaky labor market and Trumpā€™s policy plans (e.g., tariffs) add uncertainty to the mix. šŸ˜¬ 

Overall, the minutes showed that policymakers still have not identified an appropriate ā€œneutral rateā€ or how quickly to lower rates. It continues to walk a tightrope of maximizing employment while bringing inflation down to 2%. Itā€™s been so far, so good, but the recent fiscal shakeup could cause some turbulence in early 2025.

Still, stocks continue to climb the ā€œwall of worry,ā€ with retail investors and traders leading the charge into 2025. To the moon, baby. šŸš€ 

STOCKTWITS EDGE
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