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Consumer Confidence Cruises Higher
Americans' big bet on stocks, China's latest pump-and-dump, and earnings movers and shakers.
NEWS
Consumer Confidence Cruises Higher
Source: Tenor.com
Bulls remain in charge ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with money rotating back into tech and several other large/mega-cap leaders. Bitcoin is taking a break from flirting with the elusive $100,000 level, but risk appetite in the equity markets remains intact as we all prep for the final trading days of November. š
Today's issue covers the surge in consumer confidence, popular retail and tech earnings results, and an explanation of the latest Chinese pump-and-dump. š°
Hereās the S&P 500 heatmap. 9 of 11 sectors closed green, with utilities (+1.59%) leading and materials (-0.75%) lagging.
Source; Finviz.com
And here are the closing prices:
S&P 500 | 6,022 | +0.57% |
Nasdaq | 19,176 | +0.63% |
Russell 2000 | 2,424 | -0.73% |
Dow Jones | 44,860 | +0.28% |
Most bullish/bearish symbols on Stocktwits at the close: š $HSAI, $AMBA, $VSEE, $JWN, $ADSK š $HPQ, $SMTC, $STLA, $RMCO, $GPUS*
*If youāre a business and want to access this data via our API, email us.
STOCKS
Americans See Clear Skies Ahead š¤
The Conference Boardās first consumer confidence survey since the election provided a fresh perspective on Americans' attitudes toward the economy.
Novemberās consumer confidence index ticked up 2.1 points to 111.7, led by a sharp increase in the āpresent situation indexā and a nominal uptick in expectations. Itās now at the top of the range thatās prevailed over the last two years, driven by consumers feeling more optimistic about the current job market.
With the election over, part of the sharp jump in the āpresent situationā and āexpectationsā indexes likely came from a perception of conditions rather than actual ones. As we know, peopleās views of the economy and market are highly politicized. However, the fact that this move aligns with the recent trend reiterates an overarching theme of improving āvibes.ā šļø
Source: Conference-Board.org
Interestingly, the perceived likelihood of a U.S. recession continues to fall, even as the labor market softens. This category reached the lowest level since the survey began asking the question in July 2022. š§āš¼
Source: Conference-Board.org
From a stock market perspective, the percentage of Americans who believe stock prices will move higher over the next 12 months reached a record high of 56% (since the inception of this survey). Weāve referenced the overwhelming optimism around U.S. stocks for several months, and that trend shows no sign of slowing down. š¤©
Source: Callie Cox Media, LLC
Meanwhile, the Fedās November meeting minutes showed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts (at a gradual pace). Markets expect the Fed to cut another 25 bps in December, but the picture becomes a lot murkier into 2025 when a shaky labor market and Trumpās policy plans (e.g., tariffs) add uncertainty to the mix. š¬
Overall, the minutes showed that policymakers still have not identified an appropriate āneutral rateā or how quickly to lower rates. It continues to walk a tightrope of maximizing employment while bringing inflation down to 2%. Itās been so far, so good, but the recent fiscal shakeup could cause some turbulence in early 2025.
Still, stocks continue to climb the āwall of worry,ā with retail investors and traders leading the charge into 2025. To the moon, baby. š
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