NEWS
Consumer Confidence Cruises Higher

Bulls remain in charge ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with money rotating back into tech and several other large/mega-cap leaders. Bitcoin is taking a break from flirting with the elusive $100,000 level, but risk appetite in the equity markets remains intact as we all prep for the final trading days of November. 👀

Today's issue covers the surge in consumer confidence, popular retail and tech earnings results, and an explanation of the latest Chinese pump-and-dump. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 9 of 11 sectors closed green, with utilities (+1.59%) leading and materials (-0.75%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

Most bullish/bearish symbols on Stocktwits at the close: 📈 $HSAI, $AMBA, $VSEE, $JWN, $ADSK 📉 $HPQ, $SMTC, $STLA, $RMCO, $GPUS*

*If you’re a business and want to access this data via our API, email us.

STOCKS
Americans See Clear Skies Ahead 🤔 

The Conference Board’s first consumer confidence survey since the election provided a fresh perspective on Americans' attitudes toward the economy.

November’s consumer confidence index ticked up 2.1 points to 111.7, led by a sharp increase in the “present situation index” and a nominal uptick in expectations. It’s now at the top of the range that’s prevailed over the last two years, driven by consumers feeling more optimistic about the current job market.

With the election over, part of the sharp jump in the “present situation” and “expectations” indexes likely came from a perception of conditions rather than actual ones. As we know, people’s views of the economy and market are highly politicized. However, the fact that this move aligns with the recent trend reiterates an overarching theme of improving “vibes.” 👍️ 

Interestingly, the perceived likelihood of a U.S. recession continues to fall, even as the labor market softens. This category reached the lowest level since the survey began asking the question in July 2022. 🧑‍💼 

From a stock market perspective, the percentage of Americans who believe stock prices will move higher over the next 12 months reached a record high of 56% (since the inception of this survey). We’ve referenced the overwhelming optimism around U.S. stocks for several months, and that trend shows no sign of slowing down. 🤩 

Meanwhile, the Fed’s November meeting minutes showed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, allowing for further interest rate cuts (at a gradual pace). Markets expect the Fed to cut another 25 bps in December, but the picture becomes a lot murkier into 2025 when a shaky labor market and Trump’s policy plans (e.g., tariffs) add uncertainty to the mix. 😬 

Overall, the minutes showed that policymakers still have not identified an appropriate “neutral rate” or how quickly to lower rates. It continues to walk a tightrope of maximizing employment while bringing inflation down to 2%. It’s been so far, so good, but the recent fiscal shakeup could cause some turbulence in early 2025.

Still, stocks continue to climb the “wall of worry,” with retail investors and traders leading the charge into 2025. To the moon, baby. 🚀 

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