The labor market continues to cool, causing market participants to push their bets for a 50 bp September rate cut even further. Meanwhile, it was a mixed day in the market with defensive stocks continuing to lead the way. 👀

Today's issue covers Dollar Tree getting cut down, today’s biggest M&A deals, C3.ai’s post-earnings breakdown, and a classic example of a ‘broken’ growth stock. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 6 of 11 sectors closed green, with utilities (+0.85%) leading and energy (-1.38%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

Most bullish/bearish symbols on Stocktwits at the close: 📈 $FYBR, $BYRN, $AIEV, $SOAR, $YEXT 📉 $HPE, $CASY, $ZS, $CXM, $AI*

*If you’re a business and want to access this data via our API, email us.

They say money doesn’t grow on trees. And unfortunately investors and traders in dollar stores are learning dollars don’t grow in the stores either. 😭

After Dollar General’s lackluster results sent the stock to multi-year lows, Dollar Tree is following suit today. The dollar store giant cut its full-year forecast, citing increasing pressure on middle-income and higher-income consumers who also shop at the chain during challenging environments.

Management said, “Our original second-quarter outlook did not anticipate those pressures migrating to Dollar Tree’s customer base to the degree that they did.” 🛒

Same-store sales rose 0.70% for the entire company, jumping 1.30% at Dollar Tree stores, while Family Dollar’s same-store sales fell 0.10%.

The company’s $9 billion acquisition of Family Dollar in 2015 was supposed to strengthen its grocery offerings and improve its competitiveness vs. Dollar General. But now it seems like Walmart’s value-oriented strategy around groceries is sucking up market share across all income groups. 🥔

Additionally, liability claims remain a headwind for the company, with management saying this about the potential outcomes, “…it has become increasingly challenging to predict given the higher settlement and litigation costs that have resulted from a more volatile insurance environment.”

Shares fell 22% on the day toward an 11-year low as Stocktwits sentiment dipped further into ‘extremely bearish’ territory. 🐻

As for the economy, the JOLTs data showed a continued cooling of the labor market during July. The number of open jobs per unemployed worker fell to 1.10, now firmly below its pre-pandemic highs. 👨‍💼

This will continue to relieve pressure on wages and give the Fed the justification it needs to cut rates beginning this month. We’ll wait and see if the rest of the labor market data this week confirms this and sets the Fed up for a 50 bp cut the market is hoping for. ✂️

Stocktoberfest is back with an intimate event for executives, influencers, and the most active investors in financial markets on October 20-22. 🤝

Network with industry thought leaders like Howard Lindzon, Michael Batnick, Brian Shannon, Michael Parekh, and many more during the 2-day palooza.

Less than 40 tickets remain, so grab your seat now, and we'll see you in beautiful Coronado, CA! 😎

It was a day of deals in the market, so let’s quicky recap the biggest the money moves investors were focused on. 🧐

First we’ll start with reports that the Biden Administration is prepared to block US Steel’s purchase by Japanese giant Nippon Steel. Now, both the current President and candidates from both parties are saying they’d block the $14.90 billion acquisition…making investors feel it’s all but finished.

The news sent US Steel shares down as much as 25% on the day, with them closing down 17% as investors try to assess the company’s value on a standalone basis. Stocktwits sentiment plunged into ‘extremely bearish’ territory, signaling a lack of confidence in management’s ability to deliver shareholder value. 😰

Next up, Frontier Communications soared 38% on reports that Verizon is in advanced talks to acquire the company. The acquisition would boost its fiber network and help it compete with rivals to AT&T. Verizon shares were down about 3% with Stocktwits sentiment in ‘bearish’ territory, suggesting some skepticism about the deal. 📡

Lastly, alternative asset manager Blackstone is buying Australian data center group AirTrunk for an implied enterprise value of $16.10 billion. This is the biggest leveraged buyout of the year and comes at a time when private equity-led is bouncing back amid rising capital markets prices and falling interest rates. Global leverage buyout volumes rose 41% YoY to $286 billion during the first half of this year. 💰

The software company specializing in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) has struggled to convince investors that it’s on track to achieve profitability, causing shares to slump 16% to their lowest level since March 2023.

The company’s latest quarterly results included a $0.05 per share loss, better than the $0.13 per share loss anticipated by analysts. Revenue also topped estimates by about 3% at $87.20 million. 🔺

Management’s outlook for its current quarter was roughly in line with expectations, but investors were disappointed by this quarter’s subscription revenue, which was nearly 10% below analyst estimates.

AI shares are making fresh lows after hours, with Stocktwits sentiment sticking in ‘bearish’ territory, as investors eagerly await management’s plan and timeline to reach profitability. 😬

Energy drink maker Celsisus is a case study of what happens to growth stocks when they lose their initial momentum.

The stock failed to eclipse its first-quarter highs during May and quickly broke through support near 67-70 and its accelerated trendline from last June. More recently it tried to stabilize at its next major trendline and former resistance near 39-41, but sliced through it today…falling over 11%. 📉

As typically happens, when price momentum sours, so does sentiment. Stocktwits community sentiment is ‘extremely bearish’ (6/100), as investors and traders debate whether to catch the “falling knife.” 🫨

Economic data: ADP Employment Change (8:15 am ET), Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims (9:45 am ET), S&P Global Composite PMI (9:45 am ET), ISM Services PMI (10:00 am ET), and EIA Energy Inventories (11:00 am ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: Nio Inc ($NIO), FuelCell Energy ($FCEL), Kirkland’s ($KIRK), SecureWorks (SCWX), and John Wiley & Sons ($WLY). 🛏️

After-Hour Earnings: DocuSign ($DOCU), Broadcom ($AVGO), UiPath ($PATH), Smartsheet ($SMAR), Planet Labs ($PL), and Samsara ($IOT). 🎧

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

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🧑‍⚖️ The Internet Archive just lost its appeal over ebook lending

🚨 US safety regulators say it’s time to investigate Shein and Temu

❌ Sweden’s Volvo Cars scraps plan to sell only electric vehicles by 2030

😳 Ryan Breslow’s $450M Bolt deal said to involve a restraining order now

🤑 Exclusive: OpenAI co-founder Sutskever's new safety-focused AI startup SSI raises $1 billion

🤩 Chart Art: The best trade ideas and analysis from the Stocktwits community

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