NEWS
Hi. My Name Is Russell

You’ll see below that seven of eleven sectors closed in the green, and the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made new all-time highs again. At first glance, it sounds like another day in ATH heaven, but not for the magnificent seven. And as the old adage goes, it’s the close that matters. Let’s see what you missed. 👀

Today's issue covers the Russell 2k’s amazing day, CPI data, and signals from PepsiCo and Conagra’s earnings. 📰

Here's today's heat map:

7 of 11 sectors closed green. Real estate (+2.66%) led, & technology (-2.74%) lagged. 💚

Gold jumped $52 to $2,424, flirting with its all-time high closing level. May's intraday record of $2,450 is within reach, thanks to rate cut rumors and global jitters. Investors, take your pick from a buffet of economic worries fueling this surge. 🪙

Elon Musk pushed back Tesla's Robotaxi event from August to October, sending shares tumbling and snapping a 13-day winning streak. Investors betting on FSD being ready soon might want to rethink. Tesla closed the day down -8.44%. 🚗

Japan's new currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, intervened in the forex market, following a different strategy than his predecessor. The USD/JPY nosedived -1.88%, the most since May 1, 2024 (-2.11%). 💸

Initial jobless claims fell to 222K, beating the 236K estimate, and continuing claims also dipped. This data matches reports of a robust job market, despite Powell's comments about a cooling labor market. 🎩

Corn and soybean futures usually rally in summer but are down -19% and -14% year-to-date, respectively. Speculators' bearish bets and favorable weather forecasts are keeping prices low. This rare bearish midyear position could break historical trends that have existed since 1975. Kind of crazy. 🌽

Microstrategy announced a 10-for-1 stock split (for A and B shares). Since spending roughly $13 billion on Bitcoin over the past few years. MSTR is up +94.23% YTD and +235% YoY compared to Bitcoin’s +37.03% YTD and +90.85% YoY. 🪙

Other active symbols: $MAXN (+14.18%), $DJT (+3.68%), $QS (+30.50%), $BTC (-0.20%), $GME (+2.40%), $VLCN (+2.47%), and $KZIA (+85.57%). 🔥

Here are the closing prices: 

S&P 500

5,584

-0.88%

Nasdaq

18,283

-1.95%

Russell 2000

2,125

+3.57%

Dow Jones

39,753

+0.08%

NEWS
Russell Is Finally At The Cool Kids Table 😎

Tech and The Magnificent Seven just got chucked like a bad habit today. How bad? Well, when the $QQQ moved lower to the $500 level, it received about as much support as a weight-bearing column made of boiled spaghetti noodles. 🍝

QQQ Hourly Chart - Click to enlarge.

And here’s how the Mag 7 did today:

So, did everybody take their money and go home? Nope. It looks like that money rotated to somewhere else that wasn’t in bonds or a bank. It looks like a good chunk of it moved to the Russell 2000:

E-Mini Russell 2000 Futures - Click to enlarge.

Enough money flowed in that the Russell had its best day in over four years.

Is this a fluke or a sign of something new? Analysts aren’t quite sure - but there is a good amount of chatter that if the Fed loosens in the future, the broader market might see a lot more love instead of just tight clique of stocks.

Let’s see what happens. 👀

NEWS
June CPI Report: Inflation Takes a Chill Pill 💊

June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in this morning. Spoiler alert: inflation is finally cooling, and the Fed might actually cut rates soon. Here's the rundown. 🏃

  • Year-over-Year: CPI rose 3.0%, down from the previous 3.3%. Analysts expected 3.1%.

  • Month-over-Month: Surprise, surprise, a drop of 0.1% instead of the forecasted 0.1% increase. First time in 23 months we’ve seen a decline.

  • Core CPI Month-over-Month: A tiny 0.1% rise, missing the expected 0.2%. Last month was 0.2%.

  • Core CPI Year-over-Year: Up 3.3%, just shy of the 3.4% forecast.

  • Shelter: Up 0.2% m/m (vs 0.4% prior). Year-over-Year: +5.2% vs +5.4%.

  • Food: Up 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y.

  • Energy: Down 2.0% m/m (ouch), a steep drop from the previous -0.2%. Year-over-Year: +1.0% vs +3.7%.

Before this report, the market was betting on roughly 50 bps of easing by year-end with a 70% chance of a rate cut in September. Now, those bets are up to 57.5 bps and a 92% chance. Seems like the Fed’s rate cut might actually happen sooner than we thought. 🎰

The Fed’s Next Move

But let’s not pop the champagne just yet. We’ve got two more inflation reports and a couple of jobs reports before the next Fed meeting in September. Anything can happen, but for now, the odds are in favor of a rate cut.

STOCKTWITS “TRENDS WITH FRIENDS”
India’s Booming Bull Market 💸

Stocktwits co-founder Howard Lindzon chops it up with pals JC Parets and Phil Pearlman every Thursday on "Trends With Friends."

This week, they’ve brought back technology expert and investor Michael Parekh to discuss what’s behind India’s booming stock market, Amazon’s strategies against Chinese competition, and how AI is reshaping our understanding of common knowledge.

Watch it on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple, and subscribe to catch each episode when it goes live!

EARNINGS
When Pot Heads Stop Buying, You Know Things Are Bad 🚬

PepsiCo and ConAgra recently reported earnings that have left analysts and investors with plenty to - wait for it - chew on. 🥤

PepsiCo's Quarterly Highlights and Misses

Earnings vs. Expectations:

  • Core EPS: $2.28 (expected: $2.15)

  • Revenue: $22.5 billion (expected: $22.6 billion)

  • Organic Revenue Growth: 1.9% (expected: 2.8%)

PepsiCo's Q2 Segment Revenue:

  • Frito-Lay North America: $5.87 billion, down 0.5% YoY

  • Quaker Foods North America: $561 million, down 18% YoY

  • PepsiCo Beverages North America: $6.81 billion, up 1%

PepsiCo’s net income climbed to $3.08 billion ($2.23 per share) from $2.75 billion ($1.99 per share) a year earlier. Net sales nudged up by nearly 1% to $22.5 billion, and organic revenue rose 1.9%, driven by international markets.

However, U.S. market volumes fell—Frito-Lay down 4%, Quaker Foods down a whopping 17%, and beverages down 3%. 🔻

ConAgra's Performance and Outlook

Earnings vs. Expectations:

  • Revenue: $2.91 billion (expected: $2.93 billion)

  • Net Sales: Decreased 2.3%

  • Organic Net Sales: Decreased 2.4%

  • Operating Margin: Reported (19.1)%; Adjusted 14.8%

  • EPS: Reported loss per share $1.18; Adjusted EPS $0.61

Full Year Fiscal 2024:

  • Net Sales: Decreased 1.8%

  • Organic Net Sales: Decreased 2.1%

  • Operating Margin: Decreased 168 basis points to 7.1%; Adjusted increased 34 basis points to 16.0%

  • EPS: Reported $0.72, down 49.3%; Adjusted $2.67, down 3.6%

Price Trends and Consumer Behavior

Both companies have been feeling the heat from changing consumer behavior in response to price hikes. As PepsiCo and ConAgra have noted, customers are becoming more price-sensitive, opting for cheaper alternatives or simply buying less.

This shift is reflected in the latest data from the Federal Reserve, showing soda prices starting to drop while chip prices plateau. 🌋

Soda - Click to enlarge.

Chips - Click to enlarge.

Pepsi’s CEO Ramon Laguarta noted that consumers across all income levels are pushing back, opting for cheaper brands or buying less. “We’re seeing a more challenged consumer in the U.S. They want more value to stick with our brands.💵

Bullets From The Day

✈️ Delta’s Bumpy Summer Forecast

Delta’s second-quarter net income nosedived by 30%, even with record revenue. They’re predicting a measly 4% sales rise for Q3, disappointing analysts who expected more. Despite packed planes, the airline is struggling with higher costs and increased competition. Shares dropped 4% as analysts braced for a turbulent summer for Delta and its rivals. Forbes has more.

🏦 Inflation Dip Boosts Fed’s Rate Cut Hopes

June’s consumer price drop has the Fed feeling optimistic about finally taming inflation. The consumer price index fell 0.1%, marking the weakest monthly reading since early 2020. Fed officials are now eyeing potential rate cuts, possibly as soon as September. Traders are betting big on this shift, hoping for a smoother economic path ahead. From Yahoo!Finance.

🧠 Musk’s Neuralink Struggles but Plans Next Brain Implant

Elon Musk's brain tech venture, Neuralink, plans to implant its second human patient within the next week despite issues with their first. Their goal is to help patients with groundbreaking paralysis-control technology. However, with only 15% of the first implant’s channels working, it’s clear there are some serious bugs to squash. Yet, Musk is optimistic, aiming to hit “high single digits” of implants this year. More from CNBC.

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