NEWS
Hi. My Name Is Russell

You’ll see below that seven of eleven sectors closed in the green, and the NASDAQ and S&P 500 made new all-time highs again. At first glance, it sounds like another day in ATH heaven, but not for the magnificent seven. And as the old adage goes, it’s the close that matters. Let’s see what you missed. 👀

Today's issue covers the Russell 2k’s amazing day, CPI data, and signals from PepsiCo and Conagra’s earnings. 📰

Here's today's heat map:

7 of 11 sectors closed green. Real estate (+2.66%) led, & technology (-2.74%) lagged. 💚

Gold jumped $52 to $2,424, flirting with its all-time high closing level. May's intraday record of $2,450 is within reach, thanks to rate cut rumors and global jitters. Investors, take your pick from a buffet of economic worries fueling this surge. 🪙

Elon Musk pushed back Tesla's Robotaxi event from August to October, sending shares tumbling and snapping a 13-day winning streak. Investors betting on FSD being ready soon might want to rethink. Tesla closed the day down -8.44%. 🚗

Japan's new currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, intervened in the forex market, following a different strategy than his predecessor. The USD/JPY nosedived -1.88%, the most since May 1, 2024 (-2.11%). 💸

Initial jobless claims fell to 222K, beating the 236K estimate, and continuing claims also dipped. This data matches reports of a robust job market, despite Powell's comments about a cooling labor market. 🎩 

Corn and soybean futures usually rally in summer but are down -19% and -14% year-to-date, respectively. Speculators' bearish bets and favorable weather forecasts are keeping prices low. This rare bearish midyear position could break historical trends that have existed since 1975. Kind of crazy. 🌽

Microstrategy announced a 10-for-1 stock split (for A and B shares). Since spending roughly $13 billion on Bitcoin over the past few years. MSTR is up +94.23% YTD and +235% YoY compared to Bitcoin’s +37.03% YTD and +90.85% YoY. 🪙 

Other active symbols: $MAXN (+14.18%), $DJT (+3.68%), $QS (+30.50%), $BTC (-0.20%), $GME (+2.40%), $VLCN (+2.47%), and $KZIA (+85.57%). 🔥

Here are the closing prices: 

NEWS
Russell Is Finally At The Cool Kids Table 😎 

Tech and The Magnificent Seven just got chucked like a bad habit today. How bad? Well, when the $QQQ moved lower to the $500 level, it received about as much support as a weight-bearing column made of boiled spaghetti noodles. 🍝 

And here’s how the Mag 7 did today:

• $AAPL -2.32%

• $GOOG -2.93%

• $AMZN -2.37%

• $META -4.11%

• $NVDA -5.57%

• $MSFT -2.48

• $TSLA -8.44%

So, did everybody take their money and go home? Nope. It looks like that money rotated to somewhere else that wasn’t in bonds or a bank. It looks like a good chunk of it moved to the Russell 2000:

Enough money flowed in that the Russell had its best day in over four years.

Is this a fluke or a sign of something new? Analysts aren’t quite sure - but there is a good amount of chatter that if the Fed loosens in the future, the broader market might see a lot more love instead of just tight clique of stocks.

Let’s see what happens. 👀 

NEWS
June CPI Report: Inflation Takes a Chill Pill 💊

June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in this morning. Spoiler alert: inflation is finally cooling, and the Fed might actually cut rates soon. Here's the rundown. 🏃 

• Year-over-Year: CPI rose 3.0%, down from the previous 3.3%. Analysts expected 3.1%.

• Month-over-Month: Surprise, surprise, a drop of 0.1% instead of the forecasted 0.1% increase. First time in 23 months we’ve seen a decline.

• Core CPI Month-over-Month: A tiny 0.1% rise, missing the expected 0.2%. Last month was 0.2%.

• Core CPI Year-over-Year: Up 3.3%, just shy of the 3.4% forecast.

• Shelter: Up 0.2% m/m (vs 0.4% prior). Year-over-Year: +5.2% vs +5.4%.

• Food: Up 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y.

• Energy: Down 2.0% m/m (ouch), a steep drop from the previous -0.2%. Year-over-Year: +1.0% vs +3.7%.

Before this report, the market was betting on roughly 50 bps of easing by year-end with a 70% chance of a rate cut in September. Now, those bets are up to 57.5 bps and a 92% chance. Seems like the Fed’s rate cut might actually happen sooner than we thought. 🎰 

The Fed’s Next Move

But let’s not pop the champagne just yet. We’ve got two more inflation reports and a couple of jobs reports before the next Fed meeting in September. Anything can happen, but for now, the odds are in favor of a rate cut. ✂️ 

STOCKTWITS “TRENDS WITH FRIENDS”
India’s Booming Bull Market 💸

Stocktwits co-founder Howard Lindzon chops it up with pals JC Parets and Phil Pearlman every Thursday on "Trends With Friends."

This week, they’ve brought back technology expert and investor Michael Parekh to discuss what’s behind India’s booming stock market, Amazon’s strategies against Chinese competition, and how AI is reshaping our understanding of common knowledge.

Watch it on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple, and subscribe to catch each episode when it goes live!