The market wanted to rally Wednesday. Oil had other plans. The FBI warned California to watch out for drones and attacks from the Iranian Navy.

Three tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz this morning, and the U.S. sank Iranian vessels in response. Crude futures ripped +5% to $88. Shortly after, the IEA announced it would release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — the largest coordinated release in history from the 32-nation conglomerate. The market shrugged, because it could take months to get that to the pump, which reached $3.58/gallon Wednesday, up 22% from before the war. The IEA dropped 188M barrels when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Trump plans to invoke the Defense Production Act to start offshore oil drilling in California, sending shares of Sable Offshore higher.

Energy finished +2.4%. The Dow shed 289 points. The S&P lost -0.1%. The Nasdaq, thanks entirely to a few names doing heroic work, eked out +0.1%.

Tech also climbed off fresh earnings data, but every other sector was in the red. Financials were falling into correction territory even while the S&P 500 was not for the first time in 30 years according to Jason Goepfert, founder of White Oak Consultancy.

Oracle was the day's loudest story, surging nearly +10% after crushing last night’s earnings and raising its full-year revenue guidance. Nebius Group stock exploded after Nvidia bought a stake.

Tilly's Crushes Growth Targets: The apparel retailer exploded 70% higher after-hours following a massive double-beat in its fiscal fourth quarter, highlighted by a surprising return to profitability and resilient consumer demand.

$0.10 adjusted EPS vs. an estimate for a loss ($0.20). $155.1M revenue vs. $146.1M consensus. Comparable store sales jumped 10.1% year-over-year.

Strategic inventory management and a 720 basis point expansion in gross margin drove the blowout results. With first-quarter comparable sales already tracking up 20.1% through February, management’s aggressive guidance suggests the brand is successfully decoupling from broader retail malaise. 👕

Bumble Rallies on Outlook: Shares of the dating app jumped 20% as a strong revenue beat and optimistic forward guidance overshadowed a significant non-cash impairment charge that weighed on bottom-line results. Average revenue per paying user rose 7.9% to $22.20.

A $630M impairment tied to legacy assets skewed the earnings figure, but investors focused on the 16% beat in Q1 revenue guidance. CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd’s "quality reset" appears to be stabilizing the ecosystem, as rising monetization per user offsets a deliberate contraction in total paying members. 🐝

Petco Gains Despite Miss: The pet health retailer climbed 20% after-market as investors looked past a narrow quarterly miss to focus on signs of operational stabilization and a return to annual profitability. The sharp rally suggests a short squeeze or relief play as the market recalibrates expectations for WOOF. It was, after all, tagged by Roaring Kitty as a play back in the day.

Fossil Soars on Turnaround: The watchmaker surged 7% after unveiling the next phase of its strategic recovery plan, which prioritized full-price selling and margin expansion over raw volume. Despite a significant earnings-per-share miss, the top-line beat and a return to positive operating income of $0.9M signaled that the turnaround is gaining traction.

Position your portfolio at the center of technological innovation with the
Xtrackers Semiconductor Select Equity ETF (CHPS).

Why CHPS?

•Targeted Exposure: CHPS provides access to the leading
chipmakers, powering breakthroughs in AI, 5G, and cloud
computing—the engines of tomorrow’s economy
• Cost Advantage: With a low 0.15% expense ratio, CHPS provides
efficient access to a high-growth sector.
• Focused Strategy: Ability to express a long-term view on
semiconductors as key enablers of modern digital infrastructure
and productivity trends.

Learn how CHPS can strengthen a portfolio and help investors capitalize
on semiconductor market momentum.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

*See Xtrackers disclosure here.

In macro, February CPI landed at +0.3% headline, +0.2% core, and 2.4% year-over-year. It was a genuinely boring release, which right now counts as good news. The Fed gets one clean print before March's number absorbs the full oil shock. Speaking of March, the next FOMC meeting is next week, almost surely to be a no change vote as even the die-hard cutters can’t be expected to look at 22% jumps in gas prices in the past week and see ‘smooth sailing ahead.’

The 10-year yield still climbed seven basis points to 4.21%, its highest since early February, because the bond market is not waiting around for March to get worried. Higher-for-longer is not a debate anymore.

Thursday brings PPI and jobless claims. If producer prices are already absorbing the oil spike, the Fed's path gets narrower (especially when America is spending $10B a week on an unpopular war that is sending gas through the roof). 📉

The specialized AI cloud provider surged 15% on Wednesday after Nvidia announced a $2B strategic investment to accelerate the global deployment of $NBIS's high-performance compute infrastructure. The last two firms Nvidia bought stakes in with this structure both ended up added to the S&P 500: optical networking plays Lumentum and Coherent. Vertive is also joining the major index, according to an S&P Global release Friday, which is another Nvidia partner.

The rundown: $2B direct investment from $NVDA. 5GW+ target compute capacity by 2030. 437% revenue growth reported in the most recent nine-month period.

The partnership grants Nebius early access to Nvidia's next-gen Rubin architecture and Vera CPUs, cementing its role as a premier "AI factory" for agentic workflows. While skeptics point to circular capital flows and dependency risk, the deal provides $NBIS ( ▲ 16.14% ) with the massive capital and hardware roadmap required to meet an AI demand environment that currently exceeds available supply. ⚡

Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️ 

Macro: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (9:00 AM ET), Monthly State Retail Sales (9:00 AM ET), FOMC Press Release (9:00 AM ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $SNDL, $PLX, $GAMB, $VFF, $CCLD, $FUTU, $JG, $CREX, +6 more. ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $VXRT, $BLNK, $ADBE, $OGEN, $S, $GLBS, $ITRM, $VUZI, +31 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

📈 Join IBD’s experts for a 3-hour virtual workshop to learn what goes into a winning trade*

😨 As another shutdown impacts travelers, some see privatizing TSA screening as a solution

🏠 Trump says U.S. will build first refinery in 50 years with investment from India’s Reliance Industries

Outdated intel likely led to deadly U.S. strike on Iranian elementary school, sources say

📺 Iran's new supreme leader 'lightly injured' but active, Iranian official says

Live updates: Aftermath of deadly Midwest tornadoes as severe storm threat shifts east today

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

Want to see some change? Email Kevin Travers feedback, follow him on Stocktwits.

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which content is published on the service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋