Happy Friday, unless you have been watching your portfolio this week. The market fell as Trump told reporters outside the White House he does not want a ceasefire with Iran. "You don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side," he said.

The Russell 2000 fell into correction territory, its fourth straight week of losses. The Nasdaq is now -9.3% from its January high and within a rounding error of correction territory. The Dow is -9.2% from its February peak. The S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since June. Energy was the only sector in the green for the week, up +3%, while utilities cratered -4.1% Friday as the worst performer on the day.

The war math is getting harder to ignore. The Dallas Fed estimated this week that a Strait of Hormuz shutdown through June would reduce global GDP growth by an annualized 2.9 percentage points in the second quarter. Brent traded near $105 Friday after touching $112 earlier in the week.

Gold posted its worst week since 1983, down more than -9% on the week and settling near $4,500, as the haven trade completely broke down under the weight of a strong dollar and a Fed that just told the market it cannot cut rates into an oil shock. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury hitting 4.38%. Traders are now pricing a 50% chance the Fed hikes by October. A month ago they were pricing cuts in June.

Airlines fell more than -2% Friday as the Transportation Secretary warned that the ongoing DHS shutdown could bring air travel to "almost a grid halt" next week, with small airports potentially closing and TSA lines cascading. A two-week congressional recess starts Friday, meaning lawmakers will be away from Washington until mid-April while the shutdown drags on. The S&P 500 is down -5.5% since the war began. Nothing about this week suggested the bottom is in. 👀

The AI server maker imploded Friday with $SMCI ( ▼ 33.32% ) cratering after federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment charging co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw, a company manager, and a contractor with smuggling Nvidia-powered AI servers to China in violation of export control laws. The leveraged $SMCX ( ▼ 66.57% ) ETF collapsed as it felt the shock of its single-stock focus falling like a rock.

The indictment came from the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York and charged the three individuals with diverting high-performance Nvidia servers without obtaining required Department of Commerce approval. Super Micro itself was not named as a defendant, but that distinction did little to comfort shareholders watching a third of the company's market cap evaporate in a single session. A board member charged in connection with the case resigned Friday and the company announced a new chief compliance officer. Two of those charged were arrested, one is on the run.

Wall Street moved fast to name a winner. Wells Fargo wrote that "what is bad for SMCI is good for DELL, just in terms of market share shifts," and Wedbush, Melius Research, Jefferies and Mizuho all pointed to Dell as the most immediate beneficiary, with Melius calling it Dell's "biggest windfall yet." Dell already had the strongest Nvidia relationship among U.S. AI server resellers before Friday, and analysts said that relationship just got stronger by default. $DELL ( ▲ 0.58% ) gained nearly +6% on the day. 🖥️

You don’t usually get a warning before a price change. RAD Intel shares are still open at $0.91/share through an SEC-qualified Reg A+ round, but that price moves soon.

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This is a paid for RAD Intel madepursuant to Regulation A+ offering and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Nasdaq ticker “$RADI” has been reserved by RAD Intel and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. Brand references reflect factual platform use, not endorsement. Investor references reflect factual individual or institutional participation and do not imply endorsement or sponsorship by the referenced companies. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.$RADIntel.ai.
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The tiny Italian natural gas producer surged +87% Friday as missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, responsible for roughly one-fifth of global LNG production, sent European natural gas futures spiking +13% and suddenly made $ANNA ( ▲ 86.54% ) 's Po Valley gas assets look like the most valuable acreage nobody had priced in.

As one Stocktwits user wrote, the setup is straightforward. AleAnna supplies domestically produced natural gas to Italy, directly reducing the country's dependence on imported LNG. That paid off the moment Middle Eastern supply went under maximum stress. The company has identified three discoveries in Italy's Po Valley with 14 projects planned through the decade, covering a combined area of more than 2.7 million acres. European buyers are paying a premium for any gas that does not have to travel through a war zone.

The stock was trading near its 52-week low before Friday's move, sitting at about 9.3% of its 52-week range with a market cap of just $252M, which made the squeeze mechanics particularly violent. One Stocktwits trader who claimed to have been in the name since $2.40 framed it plainly, saying the EU's reliance on Middle Eastern LNG being choked out meant "the narrative sold itself." Whether this is a new normal or one-session war trade depends entirely on how long the Hormuz closure lasts and whether European gas buyers start scrambling for domestic alternatives in a serious way. The supply shock is real. ⛽

The prediction market company raised $1B and doubled its valuation to $22B this week, then immediately ran into a Nevada judge who signed a temporary restraining order blocking its sports, election and entertainment contracts for up to two weeks, with a hearing set for April 3.

The timing could not have been worse. The ban landed at the start of March Madness, the single most active sports betting period of the year and the backbone of Kalshi's contract volume. Nevada Gaming Control Board chairman Mike Dreitzer said bluntly that Kalshi's claim to be legal in all 50 states "is clearly not true," and Nevada has now joined Arizona in active legal action against the company. Arizona went further earlier this week, filing criminal charges against Kalshi for operating an illegal gambling business. Co-founder Tarek Mansour called it a "total overstep" and said the charges "have nothing to do with gambling or the merits," vowing to fight.

The core legal question has not been resolved and will not be anytime soon. Prediction market operators argue they fall exclusively under CFTC jurisdiction, which has championed their model under the Trump administration. States argue their gambling laws apply regardless. Nevada has also secured temporary restraining orders against Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com and Coinbase using the same theory. Oral arguments in a consolidated 9th Circuit case covering Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com are set for April, and Bloomberg Intelligence's senior litigation analyst said plainly that this ultimately needs the Supreme Court to settle. ⚖️

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

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🤑 Treasury to take over student loans as Education Secretary McMahon aims to get defaulted borrowers on repayment

😨 Flyers face unpredictable airport wait times as TSA officers go unpaid on busy travel weekend

🏠 'Fed's balancing act is getting trickier': Wall Street strategists reassess central bank's rate cut path

💰 SoftBank Planning Massive $500 Billion Data Center in Ohio

📺 More Marines are headed to Middle East as Iran war reaches the 3-week mark

Chuck Norris, 'Walker, Texas Ranger' star, dies at 86

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