Well, the market fell Tuesday, after a hopeful climb Monday as traders returned from the weekend, and hoped Fridays sell off was a fluke.

It might not have been. Small caps gained, the Dow was flat, but tech and the S&P 500 fell. Most sectors were green, but it was an AI digestion day. It was also another day of war, as the Navy sent an unmanned boat to pick up the crew of an American Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, likely shot down by the Iranians.

The president has promised to respond. Central Command began firing ‘self-defense strikes’ at Iran just past 5 pm ET, according to Bloomberg.

All eyes are on CPI inflation numbers dropping tomorrow, hoping for updates that will inform the FOMC whether it has to cut or raise. Anthropic dropped its most recent model, the twin brother of Mythos called Fable 5, and boy does it eat up tokens.

Stocktwits was split between chasing event-driven movers and stress-testing the AI trade. $SMCI turned into the demand-versus-dilution fight, $ORCL became Wednesday’s cloud exam, $GLXY kept trading like a data-center story, and $DKNG gave prediction-market bulls their first decent receipt.

Today’s Briefing:

Supermicro, the AI server maker, is raising a massive pile of cash to fund recent orders. Investors watched the stock sell off Tuesday, as the market saw Apple’s new AI Siri and turned negative on AI in general. Traders wanted proof that demand justifies the buildout costs. SMCI dropped news after the bell that did not totally help the story: the bill for chasing it landed first, but the firm said it was raising the funds to pay for nearly $40B of orders it pulled in within the past couple of weeks.

The RIP: $SMCI ( ▼ 7.62% ) fell -8% Tuesday, then dropped roughly -10% after hours. The company announced $7B in proposed financing, including $1.25B of common stock, $3.75B of depositary shares, and a future $2B ATM program. Supermicro said it has received about $39B of AI server orders from more than 20 customers.

That is the bull and bear case in one filing. The order book sounds enormous, but the financing reminds investors that AI infrastructure growth is expensive, component-heavy, and potentially dilutive. The key line is in the fine print: those orders are not firm commitments and can still be canceled, delayed, or changed.

The Stocktwits community was mixed, with normal message volume across ~88k watchers. Bulls framed the raise as growth capital for a much bigger revenue run-rate, while bears called it a correction in a stock that had already priced in too much good news.

Casey’s, the convenience-store chain that also happens to be one of America’s sneakiest pizza giants, reported after the close Tuesday and reminded investors that gas-station food is apparently a margin strategy now. The stock was already green during the regular session, then the numbers gave bulls actual toppings.

The RIP: $CASY ( ▲ 1.27% ) rose +1% Tuesday. Fiscal Q4 EPS was $4.37 vs. $3.31 expected, and revenue was $4.57B vs. $4.33B expected. Profit rose to $162.7M from $98.3M. Inside same-store sales rose +5.5%, while same-store fuel gallons rose +1.5%.

Tell the $CASY room: pizza or peak →

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Oracle, the database giant turned AI cloud infrastructure contender, reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday after the close. The stock has four straight EPS beats behind it, but this report is really about whether its AI cloud story can keep outrunning the capex and debt questions.

The RIP: $ORCL fell -2% Tuesday. Analysts expect $1.89 EPS on $19.09B in revenue. Last quarter, Oracle posted $1.79 EPS on $17.19B in revenue. The stock carries a Buy rating with a $264.04 average price target.

The bar is already high. BofA, Evercore ISI, and Oppenheimer all raised targets this week, with fresh marks at $240, $245, and $275. Bulls want another beat, but the cleaner tell will be Oracle Cloud Infrastructure growth, backlog, and whether AI data-center spending looks like leverage or just a bigger bill.

The Stocktwits community was bullish, with high message volume across ~62.7k watchers.

Jump into $ORCL: beat or bait →

Galaxy Digital, the crypto trading and asset-management shop, is suddenly trading like an AI infrastructure stock. Shares climbed again Tuesday because investors are repricing the company’s Helios data-center campus as a real business, not just a side quest attached to Bitcoin.

The RIP: $GLXY ( ▲ 7.11% ) rose +7% Tuesday while $BTC ( ▼ 1.78% ) fell roughly -3%. CEO Mike Novogratz said Galaxy has leased half of Helios’ 1.6-gigawatt capacity and expects the rest leased by late summer. CoreWeave is taking the first 800 megawatts.

That relative strength is the whole story. Bitcoin was red, AI data-center peers were sloppy, and Galaxy still closed higher because traders are treating Helios as the value driver. The bull case is that Galaxy gets AI infrastructure economics without buying the expensive chips. The bear case is that the stock just sprinted ahead of signed tenant announcements.

The Stocktwits community was extremely bullish, with extremely high message volume across ~17.9k watchers. The room focused on Galaxy outperforming crypto and other data-center names, with bulls arguing the Helios campus is still underappreciated.

Tell the $GLXY room: crypto or compute →

DraftKings, the sports-betting operator trying to defend its turf from prediction-market upstarts, finally gave investors something to cheer about Tuesday. The stock ripped after a filing showed its own event-contract business is gaining traction, which is much better than simply complaining about Kalshi and Polymarket eating everyone’s lunch.

The RIP: $DKNG rose +11% Tuesday. DraftKings said annualized consumer trading volume for DraftKings Predictions hit $1.3B in May, up +24% month-over-month. Annualized total trading volume rose +34% to $3.1B. $FLUT gained +6% in sympathy.

The Stocktwits community was bearish, with normal message volume across ~120k watchers.

Tell the $DKNG room: edge or echo →

📈 The May inflation numbers are due out Wednesday morning. Here’s what to expect

🤑 Psyched about the SpaceX IPO? Don't forget the brutal lesson from Facebook's IPO.

😨 Treasury Market Is Telling Kevin Warsh Rates Need to Be Higher

📺 CoreWeave Founders Have Dumped $2.3 Billion in Stock Since IPO

👀 Kalshi trading in ‘perps’ crosses $1 billion in volume within a week of launch

🍒 TSLA Stock: Cathie Wood Slaps $75 Robotaxi Ticket Into ARK’s Bull Case

Macro: CPI Inflation (8:30 AM ET), EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (10:30 AM ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $CHWY Chewy, $JILL J.Jill, $CMCM Cheetah Mobile. ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $ORCL Oracle Corp, $GLBS Globus Maritime, $AEMD Aethlon Medical, $RH Restoration Hardware, $SFIX Stitch Fix Inc Class A, +1 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Want to see some change? Email Kevin Travers feedback, follow him on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast!

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