NEWS
Powell Presser Powers The Bulls

The market’s rebound continued, led by tech and other “risk-on” sectors. While the Fed’s updates and commentary were not super dovish, they were neutral enough to keep the bulls betting on a continued comeback. With most earnings out of the way, macro uncertainty and geopolitics remain the key risks for investors. 👀 

Today's issue covers how bulls interpreted today’s Fed move, a landmark crypto battle ending, and more from a busy day on Wall Street. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 11 of 11 sectors closed green, with consumer discretionary (+1.92%) leading and consumer staples (+0.01%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

POLICY
Bulls Find Hope In The FOMC Meeting 🙏 

Reading the Federal Reserve’s statements from January through March feels like getting the same dish twice, with just a pinch more salt. 🧂 

In January, it kept its target range at 4.25%–4.50%, noted stable unemployment, and declared inflation “somewhat elevated.” Growth, in their words, was “solid,” though they slipped in the line about uncertainty to keep us on our toes.

Fast-forward to March, and they kept rates unchanged again. The old phrase “risks to the outlook roughly in balance” got upgraded to “uncertainty around the outlook has increased,” which might as well be economist-speak for “who knows?”

For the updated economic projections, Powell hedged slightly around the Fed’s “dot plot,” which maps out policymakers' expectations for the path of interest rates. Powell noted that it’s “an admittedly challenging exercise” in the current environment. Still, almost all Fed officials see risks to the downside on growth and upside risks to their unemployment and inflation forecasts. ⚠️ 

That last part may seem a bit confusing, given that slower economic growth and higher unemployment would typically put downward pressure on prices. However, the current environment of uncertain fiscal policy is creating a “crisis of confidence” among consumers, businesses, investors, etc., while certain policies, like tariffs, put upward pressure on prices.

For Powell’s press conference, tens of thousands of retail investors and traders tuned in on Stocktwits to listen to his comments live. The conclusion, however, was mixed. Powell’s comments were as measured as always, though it was interesting to see him navigate questions about fiscal policy and potential threats to Fed independence given the recent FTC firings and court ruling. 🤔 

Nevertheless, the lack of major surprises from the Fed helped the bulls maintain their newfound momentum as they look to claw back recent losses. Consumer discretionary, technology, financials, and other “risk-on” market areas led to the upside today. Many traders view that as a positive sign that the momentum is set to continue into the weekend. They’ll just need tariff talks to remain subdued.

P.S. if you’re not already using Stocktwits for live market events like the FOMC Press Conference, Nvidia’s GTC Conference, or earnings calls of your favorite companies, you are missing out. Add the stocks you care about to your watchlist to be notified when one of these major events occurs, and never miss a beat! 👀 

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