Powell’s Poker Face: Persistent And Patient

Powell posits we wait and wait some more, plus a look at what's happening to silver

NEWS
Powell’s Poker Face: Persistent And Patience

Someone didn’t tell Powell that stocks only go up. New all-time highs, again, for the NASDAQ and S&P 500. That’s an insane six consecutive days of new ATHs in a row. Hell, even Tesla’s on a ten day winning streak. Let’s see what you missed. 👀

Today's issue covers: Powell’s comments today and silver’s shocking performance. 📰

Here's today's heat map:

7 of 11 sectors closed green. Financials (+0.65%) led, & materials (-1.01%) lagged. 💚

The EIA's latest outlook is bullish on oil demand. They predict global demand will rise by 1.10 million BPD in 2024 and 1.80 million BPD in 2025. U.S. oil production is also expected to grow, but crude prices still face downward pressure. 📈

Japanese stocks are on a roll, with the Nikkei 225 hitting an all-time high. Blackrock says there's more upside to come, especially in healthcare stocks. But watch out for yen weakness, which could put a damper on this rally. 📊

Small business optimism in the US ticked up to 91.5 in June, the highest since December. Despite the improvement, the index has been below its long-term average for 30 months, with upcoming elections adding to the uncertainty. 🚀

Gold tried to break out but got smacked back down. It’s stuck between $2,280 and $2,400, with the 100-day moving average looming as a key level. A clear breakout might be what's needed for a sustained rally. 🪙

Bitstamp says it will release Bitcoin to Mt. Gox’s creditors as soon as possible, not 60 days. That has some in the crypto space a little on edge and fearful of increased selling pressure.  

Other active symbols: $TSLA (+3.71%), $MAXN (-8.15%), $NVDA ($2.48%), $SNGX (+271.01%), $GME (+0.61%), and $BTC (+5.33%) 🔥

Here are the closing prices: 

S&P 500

5,576

+0.07%

Nasdaq

18,429

+0.14%

Russell 2000

2,029

-0.45%

Dow Jones

39,291

-0.13%

NEWS
Powell Plays it Cool 🧊

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is juggling inflation and the labor market like a pro. He claims the labor market is back in balance, but it’s not that simple. The nuances are what make this interesting. Let's dig in. 🏋️‍♂️

Labor Market: Back in the Groove?

Powell says the labor market has cooled, but it’s still strong. Job creation is slowing down, hinting at a return to pre-pandemic vibes. "We need to see more good inflation data," Powell remarked, casually mentioning they've had one solid inflation reading and one that’s “pretty good.” Good enough? We’ll see.

Getting inflation down is Powell's top game. “The best thing we can do for housing is getting inflation down,” he noted. The Fed’s moving cautiously with rates, needing more positive data to boost their confidence. "More good data would strengthen our confidence on inflation," he added. Translation: Hurry up and wait. ⏲️ 

If you were hoping for clues on when the Fed might cut rates, Powell's not your guy. "Today, I'm not going to be sending any signals on the timing of future actions," he said.

Economic Outlook: US vs. The World

Powell's proud of the US economy, noting it’s doing better than its global peers, expanding at a solid pace. But don’t get too comfortable. Reducing restraint too late or too little could mess things up. "Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face," he stated, stressing the balance they need to strike in hitting their employment and inflation goals. 🇺🇸 

Quotes Of Interest

  • "The most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent."

  • "At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face."

With the next CPI report looming and the September FOMC decision not far off, everyone’s watching the Fed. Rate cuts or cautious steps? We’ll know on Thursday. 📆 

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