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NEWS
Reciprocal Tariffs Make A Return

The stock market slid on the latest geopolitical concerns, giving back several days of gains and closing the week down marginally. Despite continued newsflow from earnings, economic data, and geopolitical moves, neither bulls nor bears are making much directional progress in the equity or crypto markets. Investors are patiently awaiting the next big catalyst to help the market make up its mind. 👀

Today's issue covers Trump’s latest tariff tease, what’s driving the energy sector’s volatility, and other noteworthy pops & drops. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 0 of 11 sectors closed green, with energy (-0.01%) leading and consumer discretionary (-1.96%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

STOCKS
Tariffs Cause Stocks To Turn Lower 📉 

Yes, this is the same main story headline from last Friday’s issue. We literally copied and pasted it because Trump’s tariff talk is back, this time with a twist.

President Donald Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs next week. These differ from “flat fee tariffs” because they seek to equal the tariffs other countries impose on U.S. imports. An eye for an eye attitude, with Trump saying, “I think that’s the only way to do it. They charge us. We charge them.” 👁️ 

The move sent stocks down across the board as investors raced to figure out which countries and companies could be impacted most. The U.S. Dollar Index jumped on the news, alongside interest rates, snapping their recent losing streak.

The consensus right now is that these moves will only make it more difficult to keep interest rates down, as Trump noted as a goal of his administration. The strengthening of the U.S. Dollar, alongside factors like a resilient labor market, will continue to put upward pressure on borrowing costs (and potentially inflation). 🔺 

January’s nonfarm payrolls report showed softer job growth of 143,000, missing estimates of 169,000 and down from December’s 307,000. Average hourly earnings growth remained higher than inflation (+0.5% MoM and 4.1% YoY), and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4% as labor force participation rose 0.1%. 📊 

Trump’s trade actions are affecting the broader economy and markets, as well as individual stocks. U.S. Steel’s shares saw volatility jump as Trump organizes a deal to have Japan’s Nippon Steel invest in the company instead of purchasing it outright for $55 per share ($12.3 billion). 

Geopolitical decisions like this have the ability to reshape the American steel business (and other industries), so analysts and investors are watching the outcome closely. However, in the interim, as a deal is fleshed out and discussed publicly via Trump, volatility will likely remain high for companies caught in the crosshairs. 🎯 

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