The market climbed Thursday, everyone hoping peace is here to stay. The S&P 500 hit all-time highs again, before a slight pullback, but the top sector rising was energy. The head of the International Energy Agency in Paris said the EU has “maybe six weeks or so,” left of jet fuel. Which is green, but in the same way halting fossil fuel burning entirely would be green. 🌎

Pakistan is pushing for the U.S. and Iran to prolong their truce, as Israel and Lebanon finally agreed to a ceasefire Thursday. The strait is still blocked, but the market is pricing all-time highs like it’s open again.

In other news, after Claude and the Pentagon had a falling out, The Information reported Google is in talks to offer its Gemini model for classified settings.

In Macro, new applications for unemployment in the U.S., or jobless claims, fell to 207k, one of the lowest weeks of new claims this year, which means layoffs were limited, Bloomberg reported. Mortgage rates fell to a monthly low at 6.30%, down about 50 basis points in a year.

The chipmaker posted a record quarter Thursday but the stock held steady in the post market, a sign the AI-fueled rally had already priced in the upside after last week's revenue blowout. But don’t just take my word for it, let’s feature earnings expert, and Stocktwits community friend Brad Freeman, Founder of Stock Market Nerd:

Freeman said the firm is showing, “Better capacity utilization, ongoing cost discipline and some non-structural foreign exchange help all boosted profitability.”

But there are tailwinds hitting margins that are far stronger than any headwinds impacting the company already, Freeman pointed out, and are powered by exceedingly strong AI-based demand as well as ongoing supply tightness.

Two forces will affect margins looking forward, Freeman argues: international manufacturing woes, including shifting some production to the U.S., and the firm’s new 2-nanometer tech.

The RIP: $TSM ( ▼ 3.13% ) gross margins ran more than 10 percentage points above the company's long-term 56% target. Geographic diversification into the U.S. and other regions creates a 2-3% headwind over the next several years. The N2 node ramp adds another 2-3% in 2026, consistent with the pattern that has followed every new node. "Made in USA" manufacturing is expected to command premium pricing that offsets part of that drag over time.

Made in the USA will go from a contraction to a benefit when they can raise prices on U.S. chips, Freeman wrote.

They need to ensure that these trusted customers can get the highly valuable hardware they need, even if tensions in Taiwan escalate,” Freeman said. “This is an easy margin headwind to accept, considering how powerful the offsets currently are.”

The N2 ramp follows the same 3-4 year trajectory seen with every node: margins initially compress, then recover and surpass blended company margins. N3, N2's predecessor, is on track to hit that crossover later this year in its fourth year of production.

Freeman puts the combined known headwinds at roughly 4-6% of margin pressure, and current pricing power is outrunning both by a wide margin. The real change for holders is when the supply-demand imbalance normalizes. That is when this margin story changes.

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The streaming giant beat with a massive YoY jump in net income from the same quarter last year in its report Thursday, but the stock slid 8% after hours on weak guidance, raising fresh questions about growth momentum now that the Warner Bros. Discovery deal is dead.

The RIP: $NFLX posted $1.23 EPS vs. $0.76 expected; $12.25B revenue vs. $12.17B consensus, up 16% year-over-year. Q2 guidance missed across the board: $12.57B revenue vs. $12.64B expected, $0.78 EPS vs. $0.84, operating income of $4.11B vs. $4.34B.

The company said Co-founder and current chairman Reed Hastings is leaving the board in June.

“Netflix changed my life in so many ways, and my all‑time favorite memory was January 2016, when we enabled nearly the entire planet to enjoy our service,” Hastings said.

Holders of $NFLX ( ▲ 0.07% ) now have to square a stock that ran on relief from the failed $WBD acquisition with a quarter that didn't prove the standalone story. They lost the takeover bid to Paramount, but the firm said it still expects costs planned for 2027 to spill into this year instead. The firm won a $2.8B fee from stepping away from their deal, and hiked prices in March. BMO's Brian Pitz flagged what matters most: whether Netflix can scale a $10B+ ad business long-term. That's the thesis now. 📉

Heavyweight defensive names $ABT ( ▼ 6.0% ) and $SCHW ( ▼ 7.63% ) faced sharp selling pressure on Thursday as first-quarter results failed to overcome cautious outlooks and internal efficiency concerns. $ABT dropped -6% despite a top-line beat, as investors focused on decelerating diagnostics revenue and intensifying competition in the medical device space. Meanwhile, $SCHW fell -8% as the market grew skeptical of the firm's ability to maintain net interest margins amid a shifting rate environment and ongoing client cash sorting.

The RIP: $ABT reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.15, slightly beating the $1.12-$1.18 guidance range, on revenue of $11B which rose 6% year-over-year. $SCHW saw its stock tumble after management signaled that while total client assets hit record levels, the pace of "cash sorting" out of low-yield accounts into higher-yielding alternatives remains a drag on near-term profitability. 📉

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Macro: FOMC Member Daly Speaks (11:30 AM ET), U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (1:00 PM ET), Fed Waller Speaks (2:00 PM ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $ERIC, $ALLY Ally Financial Inc. ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $AIRE reAlpha Tech Corp., $RF Regions Financial Corporation, $TFC Truist Financial, $FITB Fifth Third Bancorp. 🌙

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🤑 Trump Says Deal With Iran ‘Looking Very Good’ Amid Ceasefire

😨 AP Exclusive: Europe has ‘maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left,’ energy agency head warns

🏠 Pope says ‘world is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants’ amid feud with Trump’s White House

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