Stocks fell Monday as AI leaders called for slower model development and investors punished the companies supplying the boom. If you are a loser that checks twitter for tech updates 24/7 like yours truley, the chatter this weekend would have you think the Skynet was falling. Every major AI lab said ‘woahhhh girl let’s slow down’ like they were calming a wild horse. More like calming their own pre-IPO investors.

The timing couldn't be more annoying, it being a fabled FOMC rate decision week, and the war in Iran knocking out even more oil transport capacity, sending oil past $100 again. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5%, signaling to anyone paying attention that a 3.5-2.75% target Fed rate is about 1.50% off.

Cybersecurity was the exception. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Zscaler surged as traders decided the answer to dangerous autonomous agents was buying the companies selling guardrails, permissions, and kill switches.

Stocktwits chatter concentrated in $NOK, $RUM, $PLAY, $BAC, and $GLW. Dip buyers stayed extremely bullish on Nokia after its 13% slide, while Rumble’s room leaned bearish even after Anthropic was identified as the customer behind its $13.7B compute contract.

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RUM Group, the video-platform operator now expanding into AI infrastructure through Quake AI, surged Monday after The Information identified Anthropic as the unnamed customer behind a GPU-services agreement signed Aug. 23. The company disclosed the contract on Aug. 24 but kept the buyer secret. So much for slowing down, right?

The RIP: $RUM ( ▲ 11.58% ) climbed +11.6% on 25.7M shares. The six-year agreement carries roughly $13.7B in total order value across three tranches, but the third requires customer approval of RUM’s delivery date. The customer also gets warrants for up to 50.8M shares at $0.01 each.

Corning, the optical-fiber and specialty-glass manufacturer, cratered Monday after opening a $2B at-the-market common-stock program. The financing landed as calls to slow AI development hammered the data-center supply chain.

The RIP: $GLW ( ▼ 13.7% ) fell -13.7% to $143.60 on 17.6M shares. Corning can sell up to $2B of stock through the program, adding a sizable dilution overhang after a run that had lifted shares roughly 66% this year.

The Elmet Group, a U.S. tungsten and advanced-materials supplier, ripped Monday after the Department of War committed $450M to expand its domestic manufacturing and allied mining network. Its Elmet Technologies unit also won a contract to supply tungsten materials to the National Defense Stockpile.

The RIP: $ELMT ( ▲ 32.8% ) surged +32.8% to $21.50 on 13.9M shares. The government investment starts with a $200M draw at closing. The stockpile contract carries a $2B ceiling, but only $150M is guaranteed and funded.

The government receives redeemable preferred equity, warrants representing up to 19.9% of Elmet’s post-transaction common stock, one board seat, and one observer. Washington is backing the business, but common shareholders are helping pay for the expansion.

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The AI safety debate produced an actual trade Monday. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and Zscaler surged after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that autonomous agents could take over the internet within six to 12 months. The post was endorsed by Sam Altman and Musk, both genuine enemies by way of competition, but united as AI lab leaders. Chipmakers sold off like they were caught smuggling nuclear waste.

The RIP: CrowdStrike $CRWD surged +15%, Palo Alto Networks $PANW climbed +13%, and Zscaler $ZS gained +15% Monday afternoon. Nvidia $NVDA fell -3%, Broadcom $AVGO dropped -4%, and AMD $AMD slid -5%.

CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz responded to Dario’s diatribe, and basically said it's a great time to be in the cybersecurity business. The world will not slow down, he wrote, but instead everyone else needs to speed up. Every AI agent needs limited permissions, traceable actions, and a kill switch. Conveniently, CrowdStrike sells all of that.

The real issue, beyond the sudden, insane calls that AI will kill us all: OpenAI is already spending like the race cannot slow down. Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI has released public S-1 documents, but insider reporting from publications like The Information tells a cash burn story. Shareholder documents from OpenAI reportedly showed $5.7B of Q1 revenue, a 39% gross margin, and $3.7B of cash burn. It also reportedly owes $665B in compute commitments through 2030.

What information we do have comes from the giants at the other end of the AI race. Microsoft’s 10-K showed where much of that OpenAI money goes. The company recognized $24.1B of revenue from OpenAI arrangements during fiscal 2026 and had another $6B receivable. A lot of the AI lab’s revenue heads upstream before it becomes profit.

Anthropic says it reached a $65B annual revenue run rate this year (basically took one good month X12). More specifically, Reuters reported the firm pulled $11.5B in Q2. The firm claims a 80% gross margin, just not including things like payroll, stock comp, model training…. ya know COSTS. Based on training costs alone, it spent 70% of every Q1 dollar of revenue on training, meaning something like $36B in estimated full year costs, and that's before the costs of running the rest of the company.

There is no public income statement showing other line items, what AWS and Google keep for their deal of 10 gigawatts of capacity, customer concentration, inference costs, or cash burn. Investors are being asked to value the company before seeing the bill, and the valuation might be 300-400X actual operating profit.

Meanwhile, Meta made $59.4B from advertising last quarter, so its new Muse does not need to make money. Muse also quickly jumped up to the top 10 apps on the app store, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it sees the #1 slot. It basically does what 99% of people need AI to do: send messages, emails, makes funny images and video: all for free.

The other metrics we have are from even cheaper Chinese alternatives. Alibaba’s Qwen apps generated $492M and lost $2B, while AI Cloud produced $7.1B of revenue and $830M of adjusted profit. DeepSeek generated only $70.7M during the first seven months of 2026, but reported an 82.9% API gross margin.

That is a tiny alternative business with a huge ability to wreck everyone else’s pricing. Remember, DeepSeek 4.1 is said to do basically the same job of Sonnet and Sol, at 5-10% of the cost.

It brings us to my thesis: OpenAI and Anthropic need frontier intelligence to remain scarce. Dario wrote about stopping doomsday, and on CBS Sunday Morning even advocated for a government bailout. In comparison, Meta and Alibaba can subsidize AI. DeepSeek can undercut AI. CrowdStrike gets paid when all of them unleash more AI agents. If Uncle Sam steps in to buy them (regulate them) ‘to save the world’ it looks way more like saving their nauseating pre-IPO valuations.

Instead, the market added roughly $32B to cyber security companies, and everyone else is using Facebook AI chat bot and X to send memes. Small groups of experts or skilled workers use Codex and Claude for more specific applications, but honestly it costs $20/month for top tier models. They are selling a niche, inexpensive product as if everyone will use it for everything, when more likely than not, few will.

Earlier this year, when everyone was using Claudbot like the new NFT craze had just started, Dario was arguing that his firm should have more power than the president to decide how the Pentagon uses Anthropic's models. Trump and gang kicked Claude out, and OpenAI jumped in.

Now, Anthropic and gang need help because smaller models and massive money printing firms like BABA and META can easily match their LLM work, and Dario asks for a bailout.

146.9K WATCHERS · BEARISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Bank of America slid after CEO Brian Moynihan said third-quarter sales and trading revenue would be relatively flat year over year, a weak update for a stock priced for stronger capital-markets momentum.

13.5K WATCHERS · NEUTRAL · LOW ACTIVITY

Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock following a 159% yearly run, while Monday’s broader AI hardware selloff gave investors another reason to take profits.

10.5K WATCHERS · BEARISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

GE Vernova dropped after GLJ Research launched coverage with a Sell rating and $470 target, roughly half Friday’s close, as an AI slowdown threatened the power-demand trade.

138.5K WATCHERS · BEARISH · LOW ACTIVITY

Coinbase jumped as revised Clarity Act language revived hopes for Tuesday’s Senate vote, while Compass Point upgraded the stock to Neutral and raised its target to $177 from $130.

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😨 OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on AI: 'We could lose control'

🏠 Stocks could have a tough road ahead if the Fed hikes rates: Chart of the Day

🧓 Trump says no need for more AI regulation, slams Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei

💰 Saudi pipeline hit by drones will be out of service for weeks, further restricting oil flow

💾 Anthropic Targets Financial Advisors With New Claude Tool, Includes BlackRock, Charles Schwab Integrations

🪙 Your daily crypto email, data-driven and short enough to finish

Macro: FOMC Press Release (9:00 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $CTRM Castor Maritime Inc, $FPS Forgent Power Solutions Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A. ☀️

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers, with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Send me charts and ideas! Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎

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