The market was lower Tuesday, as the world watched for any sign Iran and theU.S. would make up before the end of the ceasefire. With the blockade still in effect, Trump extended the deadline for the reopening of the strait to Wednesday after the market closes.

Sure enough, just before the market closed whispers from Iran and VP JD Vance’ office came through the AP news wire: it sounds like the talks set for Wednesday are off. BUT Trump said he is extending the ceasefire until the talks conclude, in a confusing news drop about an hour later. Trump said Pakistani leaders urged him to attack yet.

4D chess or distraction: in other policy news, UPS and FedEx have begun filing for tariff refunds. Remember when last year’s April tariff crunch was the talk of the town? Well Uncle Sam owes businesses around $160B for illegal taxation.

Speaking of Uncle Sam, lawmakers questioned Kevin Warsh today in the Senate. The Trump nominee for Fed Chair said Trump’s hand will not be up his… ah... well he said he will not be Trump’s “sock puppet” and instead encourage arguing at the Fed while maintaining independence. GOP Senator Tillis again said the persecution of Powell and other Fed members is a disgraceful attack on independence.

Just past 5 pm, Bloomberg reported that unauthorized users accessed Mythos, the most advanced Anthropic model to date.

The only sector that performed well, or green at all Tuesday, was energy, burning higher on the idea that war is back on the menu, for now.

The AI lab's most dangerous model got loose on Tuesday, according to a Bloomberg source. A small group of unauthorized users accessed Mythos, the frontier model Anthropic has called capable of exploiting vulnerabilities. The hackers got in using a mix of third party contractor credentials and internet sleuthing to find their way in.

The RIP: Anthropic confirmed it is investigating "unauthorized access to Claude Mythos Preview through one of our third-party vendor environments." The breach traces partly to credentials from a recent data leak at Mercor, an AI training startup. Anthropic has so far approved Apple, Amazon, Cisco, and dozens of other organizations to test Mythos through its invite-only Project Glasswing program.

Anthropic is still private, so the tradeable names here are $AMZN and $GOOGL, its two largest backers. Amazon offers Mythos through its Bedrock platform and just expanded its Anthropic investment to $25B. The bigger question is whether this breach slows Anthropic's controlled rollout or accelerates it, as financial institutions and government agencies on both sides of the Atlantic are now racing to get on the Glasswing list. 🔐

If you're the kind of trader who thrives on volatility, momentum, and making bold moves—this is for you. Direxion’s Single Stock Daily Leveraged ETFs give you the tools to supercharge your short-term trades in some of the market’s most-watched names. Want to double down on Nvidia or ride the Tesla wave? These ETFs offer 2X or -1X daily exposure, letting you express bullish or bearish views with precision and speed. Designed for experienced traders who live for the action. Significant risk involved.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

The Iran conflict is rewriting airline economics in real time. United and Alaska both reported this week with the same story: strong demand, brutal fuel costs, and guidance that acknowledges nobody knows when relief is coming.

United delivered a clean Q1 beat on Tuesday and it didn't matter. The airline slashed full-year guidance nearly in half as Iran-driven fuel costs obliterated margins, announcing a 5-point capacity cut.

The RIP: $UAL ( ▼ 1.8% ) reported adjusted EPS of $1.19 vs. $1.09 expected, revenue of $14.6B, up +10.6% year over year. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance cut to $7-$11 from $12-$14. Q2 guidance of $1-$2 missed the $2.08 consensus. Fuel expense jumped $340M year over year.

2027. Alaska air also reported a Q1 loss earlier in the week. They did what every airline does in a fuel crisis: suspended guidance entirely. Costs ran $100M higher than planned in Q1 with an expected $600M hit coming in Q2.

Tuesday’s after hours session wasn’t all just for airlines. The newly supersized lender Capital One missed on both lines in its first full quarter with Discover on the books, dropping nearly -4% after hours on Tuesday.

Welcome to the aftermath of a major short squeeze scenario. Avid Budget Group shares have jumped from about $170 at the start of the month, to an insane $713 at tuesday’s close.

Barron’s reported the real deal: two investors, SRS Investment Mgmt. and Pentwater Capital Mgmt. own nearly all of Avis's actual shares and hold swap contracts that give them economic exposure to even more. Their combined interest exceeds the total shares that exist.

The brokers on the other side of those swaps have to hold real shares as a hedge, so between direct ownership and hedging, there's almost no free float left to trade. Short sellers borrowed 9M shares they now need to return and there's nobody to buy them from. Shares have ripped sixfold since March 20, surging +17% Tuesday with three trading halts before adding +4.2% after hours.

The RIP: $CAR ( ▲ 17.28% ) closed at $713.97, up from $100 a month ago, a $24B market cap. SRS Investment Management holds 17.4M shares plus 2.9M in swaps; Pentwater Capital holds 7.8M shares plus 10.2M in swaps, a combined 38.3M shares of economic interest against just 35M outstanding. Options implied volatility hit 350%, pricing in +20% daily moves.

The stock trades at 175x projected 2026 earnings of $4 a share with $6B in corporate debt. Both Deutsche Bank and Barclays have downgraded, calling it purely mechanical. The squeeze has structural staying power: SRS is an insider and can't sell during the quiet period ahead of Q1 earnings, and Pentwater likely can't sell before September without triggering short-swing profit rules. Avis has a shelf to issue 5M shares at market prices but hasn't pulled the trigger yet. Unlike GameStop, this isn't retail: $CAR didn't crack Interactive Brokers' top 25 last week. Two whales, a locked float, and trapped shorts with nowhere to cover. 🐳

The EV maker expanded its driverless ride-hailing service to Dallas and Houston over the weekend, its first push beyond Austin. With Q1 earnings dropping Wednesday after the bell, the timing feels deliberate. Here is what to watch for tomorrow night:

The RIP: $TSLA is expected to post roughly $22B in revenue, up +15% year over year. Adjusted EPS estimates range from $0.14 to $0.37. Q1 deliveries of 358,023 missed the consensus of 365,645, the second straight quarterly miss. Capex guidance sits above $20B, more than double last year's $8.5B.

The robotaxi expansion is the headline, but only four vehicles have been tracked across Dallas and Houston so far. UBS analyst Joseph Spak doesn't expect "meaningful scaling" in Tesla's target cities, rating it neutral at $352. Longtime Wealth Fund shareholder Ross Gerber said he isn't buying the pivot either: "People just hate the brand now," he told Yahoo Finance, calling the AI push an attempt to "distract from the lack of earnings." Wednesday's call matters more than the print. Jefferies warned the results will show "further widening of the gap between vision and execution." 🚕

Kevin Warsh, the man tapped to replace Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday he has no deal with President Trump on rates, swatting down the biggest concern hanging over his confirmation as the next Fed chair.

The RIP: Warsh said Trump "never asked me to predetermine, commit, fix, or decide on any interest rate decision." He called for a new inflation framework though. Markets read the testimony as mildly hawkish: the S&P 500 slipped -0.30% to 5,087, the 10-year yield climbed +4 basis points to 4.29%, and the five-year jumped +6 basis points to 3.91%.

Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley told Bloomberg that Warsh has a rough spot to fill- the prospect of a rate cut by June, especially after the Iran war sent oil prices higher, is basically nil, Dudley said. Though Warsh testified he had no oath to cut promised to the Trump, the president told WSJ in December the opposite.

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is blocking the vote until the DOJ drops its criminal probe into Powell over Fed headquarters renovation costs. Tillis took the hearing as a chance to reiterate his block of the nomination proceedings until the Justice Department drops its probe of the Fed.

“It sets a precedent that lets somebody in the bowels of DOJ determine who to put pressure on somebody to get them to move out of this job instead of doing it in the current course and speed,” he told WSJ. “If this investigation, which, on its face, looks bogus, wasn't happening, we'd be voting to send Mr. Warsh out of committee next week or the week after.” 🏛️

Macro: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10:30 AM ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $BA Boeing, $T At&T, $FCX Freeport-McMoRan, $VRT Vertiv Holdings, $PM Philip Morris International, +9 more. ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $TSLA Tesla, Inc., $GILD Gilead Sciences, $QS QuantumScape Corp, $IBM, $LUV Southwest Airlines, +16 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

📈 Not sure how to handle this market? See how Leaderboard’s experts do it for less than $1/day*

🤑 New York sues prediction markets Coinbase and Gemini Titan, calls their operations gambling

💰 Amazon launches GLP-1 weight loss program, promising ‘fast, convenient’ access

📺 Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigns minutes before hearing on whether she should be expelled

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

Want to see some change? Email Kevin Travers feedback, follow him on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast!

Does this newsletter help you? Want to return the Fave? The best way to help the Daily Rip is to tell your friends a family about us! Share with a simple click below, and receive a free copy of our first quarterly edition of the Daily Rip Equity Forecast! This is sell-side research on how the Daily Rip audience is positioning themselves in the market this quarter.

Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which content is published on the service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋