Happy Tuesday, and somehow the market went up again even as Brent crude closed at its highest level since August 2022.

Brent settled at $103.42 a barrel after strikes hit oil fields in Iraq and a UAE gas field, and a tanker nearby. The strait itself remains largely paralyzed. US diesel cracked $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022. Markets are either looking past the war. The Director of Naitonal Counterroism isn’t: Dir. Joe Kent resigned today after he said Trump was deceived into starting a war in Iran.

Wednesday is why. The Fed wraps its two-day meeting tomorrow, with a rate decision and Powell press conference to follow. Nobody expects a move, with CME FedWatch pricing 99% odds of a hold, but the statement language matters big time. Last week's GDP and PCE data were ugly, oil is above $100, and any signal that cuts are getting pushed further out will remind this market exactly what stagflation feels like. Any language about a rise would ruin everything.

Energy was the top sector on the day. The Russell 2000 led the major averages with a +0.6% gain. Bitcoin held above $74,500 as crypto went green.

Trump publicly lashed NATO allies for refusing to join the Hormuz escort coalition, saying the U.S. no longer needs help after already decimating Iran's navy and air force. Big if true, but the strait is closed regardless. 👀

The athleisure brand cleared a lowered bar in Q4 but handed investors exactly what they feared on Tuesday after the bell, with $LULU ( ▼ 0.4% ) sliding slightly after 2026 guidance looked bad.

The RIP: $5.01 EPS vs. $4.78 estimate; revenue $3.64B vs. $3.58B expected; full-year EPS guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 vs. $12.58 consensus; Q1 revenue guided to $2.40B to $2.43B vs. $2.47B expected.

Interim co-CEO Meghan Frank told analysts the company is "course correcting on a number of fronts," which is a polished way of saying the business is not fixed yet. Tariffs are expected to cost $380M gross in 2026, up from a prediction for $275M. The firm is also in a bind offering high discounts to move inventory, a move Frank acknowledged will hurt near-term sales.

U.S. same-store sales haven't grown in two years and are expected to decline another 1% to 3% in 2026. China is growing +20% but remains too small to offset the core business. Lululemon beat a quarter Wall Street had already given up on. Too bad the Street gave up on this quarter too. 🧘

• U.S. and allied navies are spending up to $1M per missile to destroy $50,000 enemy drones — an unsustainable model against swarm attacks.

• The ZenaDrone 2000, a gas-powered, AI-driven interceptor planned to launch from naval vessels, offshore platforms, and coastal installations to engage multiple aerial threats simultaneously — drone vs. drone, at a fraction of the cost.

• The IQ Glider, a proposed autonomous marine station intended to launch, recover, and refuel ZenaDrone 2000 units at sea, enabling continuous interception coverage without shore infrastructure.

• A provisional patent has been filed with the USPTO covering the planned combined system architecture.

ZenaTech Disclaimer: image for display purposes only and does not reflect the actual ZenaDrone 2000 model.
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

The Dutch AI infrastructure darling followed its +15% surge on a $27B Meta deal with an -11% drop Tuesday after announcing a $3.75B convertible note offering, a classic case of the market celebrating the vision one day and pricing the bill the next, with $NBIS ( ▼ 10.41% ) still up +40% year-to-date.

The dilution concern is real but the context matters. Nebius has now stacked $27B in Meta commitments on top of a $17.4B Microsoft agreement signed in September, plus a $2B direct Nvidia investment last week. Now it actually has to build what it promised. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits stayed bullish. Whether that conviction holds depends entirely on execution. 🏗️

The memory sector's hottest trade heads into its biggest test Wednesday after the close, with $MU ( ▲ 4.5% ) up +55% year-to-date and +20% in the last six sessions alone, as Wall Street braces for a blowout quarter that retail traders increasingly suspect is already priced in.

The setup is strong. Analysts are modeling $19.B in revenue, up +138% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $8.66, up +455%. Q3 guidance is expected to show another +142% revenue growth projection. Micron also announced Monday it began volume shipment of its HBM4 memory designed specifically for Nvidia's Vera Rubin chips, which is about to be the biggest thing since sliced bread.

The problem is the stock price. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits flipped bullish Tuesday, but the commentary underneath told a different story: traders openly discussed profit-taking, sell-the-news setups, and fresh short positions. The question Wednesday night is whether beating +455% earnings growth is enough to keep a hot memory bid going stronger after the report. 🧠

Global ad spend at $1T+ in 2025, and they’re projecting another 5%+ increase again this year. When the budget line gets that big, 2 things happen fast. Consolidation accelerates, and entry prices move.

RAD Intel shares are still open at $0.85 for now, but the share price changes soon. $60M+ raised from 14,000+ investors. Nasdaq ticker reserved $RADI. Backed by multiple Fidelity funds. Selected by the Adobe Design Fund. Leadership team with a $9B M&A track record.

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3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

Jerome Powell takes the podium Wednesday at 2:30 PM ET for what may be his second-to-last press conference as Fed chair, with markets pricing 99% odds of a hold at 3.5% to 3.75% and almost no chance of a cut before October. Back in Feb, it looked like a May or June cut was sure.

"The decision itself is almost guaranteed. But any hints Chair Powell might drop about the path of future interest rates will be key," BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments told CNBC.

The real action Wednesday is in the dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections. YEE HAW

The Fed is expected to nudge up its 2026 Core PCE forecast from 3.0% toward 3.2% or 3.3%, unemployment projections may tick higher from December's 4.5%, and the median member is expected to hold at one cut this year. Powell will almost certainly deflect questions about Fed independence and his own succession, with the Warsh nomination still stuck in Tillis's Senate Banking Committee queue. The market is not expecting a surprise, though surprises are usually… hard to expect. 🏛️

Macro: EIA Petroleum (10:30 AM ET), FOMC Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $NSPR (InspireMD Inc), $PLX (PROTALIX BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC), $MOMO, $XOMA (XOMA ROYALTY CORP), $OSS (One Stop Systems Inc), $BBGI (Beasley Broadcast Group Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A), $JBL (Jabil), $SAIL (SailPoint Technologies Holdings Inc). ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $MU (Micron Technology), $NKE (Nike, Inc.), $PHUN (Phunware Inc), $SLS (SELLAS LIFE SCIENCES GROUP INC), $XXII (22nd Century Group Inc), $TTNP (Titan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (de)), $WWR (Westwater Resources Inc), $LAZR (Luminar Technologies Inc), +24 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

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😨 Trump Ditches Appeal for Help in Iran War, Slamming Allies

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💰 Tesla to buy $4.3 billion of LG Energy battery cells from disbanded GM plant

👀 Arizona charges Kalshi with criminal misdemeanors, alleging it’s an illegal gambling operation

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

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