Happy Tuesday. The market climbed after the official launch of the Q2/Q3 earnings season started off pretty well.

Oil continued to climb, but Trump turned back on his 20% tariff talk in less than a day, and instead said the Gulf would invest in the U.S. in exchange for the blockade.

Speaking of tariffs and blockades, the CPI came in at 3.5% for the start of June, the first drop since prices began to rise in January. The worst may be over if oil keeps moving in the Strait.

The big market story is the AI hardware trade, punctuated by record trading revenue for Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said there is a ripple effect from new AI financing opportunities across “every single industry.”

Stocktwits heat is clustered around $IBM, which fell like a rock after a sudden pre earnings release warned their revenue had fallen more than they had first thought, and more would drop a week from now during their actual release.

IBM, the enterprise software, consulting, and infrastructure giant, pre-announced a Q2 miss one week before earnings. Investors responded by unplugging Big Blue at the wall.

The RIP: $IBM closed -25.2% at $217.07, after touching $213.22, on 66.8M shares. Preliminary revenue was $17.2B vs. $17.86B expected; adjusted EPS was $2.93 vs. $3.01. Software grew +5%, consulting was flat, infrastructure fell -7%, and adjusted gross margin slipped 70 bps to 59.4%.

CEO Arvind Krishna said customers diverted budgets toward servers, storage, and memory ahead of price hikes, while cyber concerns and delayed deals piled on. The read-through landed immediately: hardware sellers $DELL +7.1% and $HPE +4.9% rallied, while services names $ACN -2.9% and $CTSH -2.6% fell. AI is expanding some budgets, but Tuesday showed it can also eat the old ones. 🧊

The $IBM room is 55% bear after the faceplant, follow the fallout ->

One company builds the machines that pattern the world's most advanced chips, and that's ASML. Nobody else makes EUV lithography gear, which is why TSMC, Samsung and Intel all sit in its order book, and why the stock reacts hard to bookings, earnings and every export-control headline out of Washington and Beijing.

The Direxion Daily ASML Bull 2X ETF (ASMU) seeks 200% of ASML's daily move through swaps, off the same brokerage screen you already trade. No options, no margin account to manage.

Keep the leash short on it. ASMU resets every day and is built for fast trades, not a position you forget about. It rides one stock, so there's nowhere to hide when ASML turns. The 2X works against you as hard as it works for you, and held longer than a day, compounding can pull your return well off twice the stock's move.

Got a read on ASML? ASMU is how you press it.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

SK Hynix, the Korean memory-chip maker supplying high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators, traded like its new American wrapper came with bottle service Tuesday. Its Nasdaq ADR exploded just days after the biggest U.S. listing ever by a foreign company.

The RIP: $SKHY closed +27.3% at $193.92 on 70M shares. The ADR was priced at $149, closed its Friday debut at $168.01, and represents one-tenth of a Seoul share. Based on Tuesday’s 1.913M-won Korean close, the U.S. wrapper finished at roughly a 51% premium. Insane.

That gap is not necessarily free arbitrage money. Conversions between the Korean shares and ADRs face restrictions, while Seoul was already closed during Tuesday’s U.S. rally. SK Hynix still owns a real HBM scarcity story, but American investors are paying airport prices for the convenient packaging. 🧳

The $SKHY room is 96% bull on the tourist premium, test the spread ->

Wall Street’s biggest banks mostly crushed estimates Tuesday, but investors graded the quality of those beats very differently.

$BAC +1.9%: Bank of America earned $1.21 per share vs. $1.12 expected on $31.56B in revenue. Trading revenue and net interest income carried the quarter, giving investors both the Wall Street casino and traditional lending business in one beat.

$JPM +2.5%: JPMorgan posted $6.14 EPS vs. $5.59 expected, with quarterly profit reaching $16.9B. Investment banking revenue jumped +30% to its highest level since 2021, and the stock shook off an opening drop to finish near record highs.

$WFC -2.7%: Wells Fargo delivered $2.00 EPS vs. $1.72 expected and $22.62B vs. $21.85B in revenue. The problem was quality: core EPS was closer to $1.80 after stripping out gains, while unchanged $50B net interest income guidance left little for bulls to chase.

$C -5.3%: Citigroup earned $3.15 per share vs. $2.72 expected as revenue climbed +14% to $24.77B, its best quarter in a decade. Investors ignored the victory lap and focused on rising expenses and management’s softer second-half setup.

$GS +9%: Goldman Sachs won the bank Olympics with $20.98 EPS vs. $14.47 expected and $20.34B vs. $16.4B in revenue. Investment banking fees jumped +55%, banking and markets revenue surged +53%, and the stock closed at an all-time high.

Financials are the clean SPY-sector angle through $XLF, but its +0.2% move hid a knife fight underneath. Fee-heavy winners $GS, $JPM, and $BAC outran lending-heavy $WFC and expense-worried $C, while bank ETF $KBE finished flat and regional-bank ETF $KRE slipped -0.2%. The quarter rewarded trading and dealmaking, not banks as one big happy family.

Yum Brands, the parent of Taco Bell, KFC, and Pizza Hut, fell Tuesday as health officials investigated whether lettuce served at certain Taco Bell restaurants was connected to a record cyclospora outbreak. Taco Bell voluntarily pulled limited ingredients from select locations, as thousands of Americans across half of U.S. states suffered from explosive diarrhea.

The RIP: $YUM closed -2.2% at $158.18 after falling as much as -4.5%. Michigan reported 3,300+ cases, Ohio 1,100+, New York City 400+, and Illinois 200+.

The illness is caused by a parasite, regularly found in raspberries, basil, cilantro, green onions, snow peas, lettuce, mesclun and salad mixes.

The brand-risk nightmare is obvious, but Taco Bell has not been identified as the outbreak’s source. The CDC typically tracks food born illness, but cyclospora was cut from the monitoring risk under the leadership of new Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy, a man who once said he got brainworms from bad ham and is known to eat roadkill. 🚽

The $YUM room is 63% bear on the outbreak probe, follow the fallout ->

$AEHR ( ▲ 5.87% ) Aehr Test ⚡: soared +34% after record bookings pushed backlog above $100M
$CRWD ( ▲ 12.14% ) CrowdStrike ⚡: surged +12% after IBM exposed cybersecurity as nondiscretionary spending
$CLSK ( ▲ 8.82% ) CleanSpark ⚡: climbed +9% after signing a $6.6B data center lease
$DELL ( ▲ 7.13% ) Dell: popped +7% after IBM confirmed enterprise budgets shifted toward servers
$NVDA ( ▲ 4.06% ) Nvidia: rose +4% after IBM exposed the AI hardware budget rotation
$CELC ( ▲ 7.0% ) Celcuity ⚡: climbed +2% after FDA approved breast-cancer drug Revtorpyk
$BIIB ( ▼ 8.17% ) Biogen: tumbled -8% after mixed CELIA Alzheimer’s data disappointed investors

Voyager Technologies is a leading U.S. manufacturer of energetics, propulsion materials and critical chemical resources, bringing together a uniquely integrated propulsion and defense systems portfolio to deliver everything from high-rate, high-value solid rocket motors that form the backbone of missile defense and electric propulsion to the most advanced controllable solid propulsion technology available today.

The Voyager American Defense Complex spans 150,000 sq feet, built for advanced manufacturing, operations and testing on PuebloPlex's 16,000 acres and over 1,000 Earth-covered magazines. The complex is designed to support high-volume production of weapon systems-enabling components, propulsion systems and assembled energetic grains used across the U.S. military, as well as Voyager's proprietary controllable propulsion technologies.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

📈 New York becomes first U.S. state to impose AI data center ban

😨 IBM stock closes down more than 25% after preannounced earnings results

💰 S&P 500, Nasdaq End Higher On Support From Chipmakers, Cybersecurity Stocks And Soft Inflation Data — NVDA, GS, SKHY, VZ, LCID In Focus

📺 Goldman Sachs CEO Says US Economy Can Weather AI Market 'Speed Bumps' – GS Stock Hits All-Time High After Record Quarter

👀 SK Hynix’s Shares Soar — Why Barclays Sees Potential For The Stock To Double

Macro: Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET), New York Fed President John Williams speaks (8:45 AM ET), St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks (6:30 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $JNJ Johnson & Johnson, $MS Morgan Stanley, $BLK Blackrock Inc., $ELV Elevance Health Inc, $CAG Conagra Brands Inc, +5 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $UAL United Airlines Holdings Inc, $KMI Kinder Morgan Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class P. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎

_{Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which content is published on the service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋}