The market closed lower Thursday, a smoggy day of wildfire smoke on Wall Street turned red as a mega-cap technology sell off outweighed the rest of the market.

Nine sectors finished green, but technology's -2.2% drop hit hard. Investors punished the AI, chip, and streaming names carrying the most index weight, while defensive earnings beats offered only partial cover. Bloomberg reported Google’s top line Gemini 3.5pro model was delayed, sending the giant down 4%, and TSMC’s beat did nothing to stop the tech burn.

The Stocktwits stream leaned into the wreckage. Retail stayed bullish on Netflix, Oracle, and Intuitive Surgical despite steep drops, with Oracle generating the loudest debate over whether its AI buildout can outrun the debt funding it.

Today's Briefing:

Netflix delivered a nearly on-target quarter, but soft guidance and reduced engagement reporting sent shares tumbling after hours.

The RIP: $NFLX fell -7.3% after hours. EPS reached $0.80 vs. $0.79 expected, while revenue was $12.56B vs. $12.59B. Q3 guidance called for $0.82 EPS and $12.86B revenue, below estimates of $0.84 and $13B.

The revenue miss was tiny, but investors wanted stronger acceleration. Netflix maintained its expectation for ad revenue to double to $3B and narrowed full-year sales guidance to $51B-$51.4B. The firm also said it was cutting back on quarterly engagement data drops. 🙄

Another caveat: Live programming now consumes more than 5% of content spending but generates just 1% of viewing hours. With growth expectations elevated, a below-consensus guide and less frequent engagement data were enough to trigger the selloff.

64% of the $NFLX room remains bullish after the guide. Buy the dip? →

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TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, posted record profit and raised its outlook Thursday morning, but shares fell as its latest U.S. factory expansion made the AI boom look very expensive.

The RIP: $TSM fell -2.3%. Q2 revenue rose +33.7% to $40.2B, EPS reached $4.31, and profit climbed 77%. in the quarter TSMC raised 2026 dollar-revenue growth to slightly above 40% and capex to $60B-$64B from $52B-$56B.

The sell off came during an overall chip selloff that saw memory dragged through the mud too. Chairman C.C. Wei said the company is investing $100B more in its Arizona plant, bringing total American investment to $265B.

Gross margin reached 67.7%: TSMC heads would argue it can fund the buildout. Holders now need proof that Arizona fabs can approach Taiwan economics before overseas costs turn record spending into lasting margin dilution.

88% of the $TSM room remains bullish after the capex shock, test the thesis →

UnitedHealth, the insurance and Optum health-services giant, delivered a major earnings beat and raised guidance Thursday, but its early rally was mostly denied by the close.

The RIP: $UNH closed +1.2% after reaching +10.3% intraday. Adjusted EPS was $6.38 vs. $4.90 expected, revenue was $112.03B vs. $110.85B, and the medical-care ratio was 86.7% vs. 88.5%. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance rose to $19.50-$20 from above $18.25.

The $UNH room is 55% bull on the turnaround, see what must hold →

Eli Lilly, the pharmaceutical giant behind Zepbound and Mounjaro, agreed Thursday to buy psychedelic drug developer AtaiBeckley, planting a $3.8B flag in a once-fringe corner of depression treatment.

The RIP: $ATAI surged +33.4%, while $LLY climbed +1.1%. Lilly will pay $6.75 per share, or $2.8B, at closing, plus contingent payments worth up to $2.50 per share. The maximum deal value is $3.8B, and closing is expected in Q3.

AtaiBeckley closed at $7.15, above the guaranteed cash payment but well below the potential $9.25 payout. That gap reflects the catch: receiving the remaining $2.50/share requires clinical, regulatory, and DEA milestones for its treatments over the next seven years.

66% of the $ATAI room backs Lilly’s offer, get the debate ->

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan became the first policymaker under Chair Kevin Warsh to publicly call for higher rates Thursday. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid joined the inflation warning, exposing an early split over whether AI spending is overheating demand.

The RIP: The fed funds target remains 3.50%-3.75%. June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, with energy down 5.7%; headline inflation was 3.5% and core 2.6% year-over-year. Nine of 18 Fed officials projected at least one 2026 hike. The next FOMC decision lands in two weeks, on July 29.

“I currently believe modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks for the FOMC’s maximum employment and price stability goals,” Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed president and 2026 voter, said Thursday. 🥊

$JBHT ( ▲ 8.01% ) J.B. Hunt: jumped +8% after intermodal growth drove a 10% EPS beat

$CTAS ( ▲ 7.22% ) Cintas: climbed +7% after record margins and upbeat 2027 revenue guidance

$IBM ( ▲ 3.72% ) IBM: rebounded +4% after bargain hunters followed Tuesday’s historic 25% plunge

$GOOGL ( ▼ 4.44% ) Alphabet ⚡: fell -4% after reports Gemini 3.5 Pro faces delays

$ORCL ( ▼ 6.25% ) Oracle ⚡: tumbled -6% after AI spending and debt concerns deepened

$ISRG ( ▲ 3.44% ) Intuitive Surgical ⚡: slid -7% after growth deceleration overshadowed an earnings beat

$RKLB ( ▼ 11.61% ) Rocket Lab: cratered -12% after Piper preferred ASTS before SpaceX’s Starship test

$SNDK ( ▼ 12.63% ) SanDisk ⚡: collapsed -13% after Chinese NAND supply fears hammered storage stocks

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📈 Truth Social to sell banks 'fastest' access to Trump's posts

🤑 Officials probe whether White House teleprompter operator profited off Trump's words

😨 ASTS, RKLB Stocks Sink To Multi-Month Lows

🏠 SpaceX stock under pressure with first test flight since IPO tonight

📺 Here’s why the housing market is hurting so much this summer

Macro: Housing starts (8:30 AM ET), Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) (10:00 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $RF Regions Financial Corp., $TFC Truist Financial Corporation, $TRV Travelers Companies Inc., $FITB Fifth Third Bancorp. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $USAU U.S. Gold Corp, $DGNX Diginex Ltd.. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎

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