Happy Friday, and the market just logged its fifth straight week of losses, the longest losing streak since 2022, the Dow entered correction territory, and Australian Bank Macquarie put out a note saying oil could hit $200 a barrel if the war runs through June.

The 10-year Treasury hit 4.48%, its highest level since July, up roughly 50 basis points since the war began. The sector breakdown tells the whole story. Utilities and, staples and energy were hiding places. Brown-Forman climbed: people apparently still need whiskey during stagflation. Everything else got hit. Software led the carnage, with Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, and Zscaler all down -6% after details of Anthropic's new model reignited SaaSpocalypse fears.

Travel and leisure got crushed after Carnival cut its full-year profit outlook. Fintech and crypto followed Bitcoin lower. Auto tech, medical devices, and ad-tech all found new 2026 lows. Meta continued to fall after a landmark social media addiction ruling added legal pressure to an already brutal week.

Thursday, Trump extended his deadline for Iran by 10 days to April 6, which the market read as just more uncertainty for $100+ oil. The critical detail from Bank of America: short-term Treasury yields have now decoupled from oil prices, rising 30 basis points since the Fed meeting.

Gold rebounded +3% to $4,538 but still closed its fourth straight week of losses after Turkey's central bank sold 60 tons of bullion in the first two weeks of the war to raise cash. The five-week losing streak becomes six if April 6 comes and goes without a deal. 👀

The Italian Gas Trade Nobody Priced In: AleAnna and Battalion Oil became the purest war-trade plays on the board Friday, two names most investors had never heard of before the Iran war started, suddenly the most logical stocks to own in a market where everything connected to the Middle East is either exploding or imploding.

The RIP: $ANNA up +20% Friday, extending a +87% move from the prior week; $BATL up +13%; Brent settled above $105; WTI crossed $100; European natural gas futures spiked +13% after missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility damaged roughly one-fifth of global LNG output.⛽

Speaking of fuel: Greenland Energy Debuts Into a War That Made It Relevant Greenland Energy completed its SPAC merger with Pelican Acquisition on Wednesday and began trading on Nasdaq under $GLND ( ▼ 36.85% ) on Thursday, dropping hard on Friday in classic first-week SPAC volatility despite being exactly the kind of frontier energy play the market should theoretically be pricing differently right now.

The RIP: SPAC deal valued Greenland Energy at $215M; closed at $13 Friday, down -37% from its intraday high; market cap settled near $345M; Jameson Land Basin holds an estimated 13 billion barrels of gross unrisked recoverable oil resources across 2 million acres in East Greenland; five-year drilling agreement signed with Stampede Drilling for up to two wells; first drilling expected in H2 2026. 😅

The SaaSpocalypse Is Back and It Brought Friends: Details of Anthropic's latest model Claude Mythos leaked Friday and the entire enterprise software sector remembered that AI agents do not renew annual contracts, with the cybersecurity and cloud names that had been relatively resilient suddenly looking very exposed in a single afternoon session.

The RIP: $DDOG down -8%; $PANW, $CRWD, $ZS each down -6%; iShares Software ETF down -2.8%; $MSFT down -24% in Q1, on pace for its worst quarter since 2008; enterprise software contract lengths already shortening per Bloomberg reporting this week. 🤖

Arm Gives Back the Victory Lap: Wednesday's AGI CPU euphoria ran straight into Friday's risk-off wall, with the entire chip sector remembering that announcements are not revenue and that a hawkish Fed, high-energy costs, and Google processing algorithms are nobody's friend when your stock is priced for perfection.

The RIP: $ARM down -7% after Wednesday's +16% surge; $SWKS down -5%; $SNPS down -5%; 10-year Treasury at 4.46%, up 50 basis points since the war began; ARM trailing P/E above 180.

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Carnival Sank the Whole Fleet: The cruise giant's profit outlook cut was the kind of honest guidance that reminds the entire travel sector what sustained triple-digit oil does to businesses that burn fuel for a living, and every leisure travel name followed $CCL straight down on Friday. They estimate higher oil prices to cost them $500M.

The RIP: Carnival cut full-year EPS guidance to $2.21 from $2.48; modeled Brent at $90 through May, $85 in Q3, $80 in Q4; $NCLH down -7%; $ABNB down -6%; $LUV down -5%.

Carnival's fuel assumptions are already optimistic given where oil closed today, and if Brent stays above $100 into Q2 these numbers get cut again with Norwegian and the airlines following. Holders of any travel name should treat Carnival's guidance as the sector floor estimate, not the base case. ✈️

Crypto Gets Margin Called: Bitcoin's options expiry collided with spot ETF outflows Friday and the entire crypto ecosystem got liquidated together, with the names that had been quietly resilient through the Iran war suddenly looking a lot less resilient.

The RIP: Bitcoin down -4.7% to $65,987; $14B in options contracts expired Friday; spot Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerated; $COIN down -7%; $HOOD down -6%; $MSTR down -5%.

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🤑 House panel finds Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick guilty of 25 ethics charges

😨 House GOP leaders push DHS funding bill through May

🏠 The Latest: Trump signs executive order to pay TSA after funding bill collapses in Congress

💰 Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008 as AI Fears Converge

👀 Iran-backed hackers breach FBI director Kash Patel's personal emails

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