The market was falling Tuesday, and you can blame big media. It turns out OpenAI is looking for new firms to couple up with after Monday’s break with Microsoft news for a good reason: WSJ reported Tuesday the firm is missing revenue targets and not attracting enough new users.

The news shocked the chip datacenter segments of the economy, hell bent on spending a ton of cash on the idea that AI tech, and the data centers that run it, will snatch up billions of users and trillions of dollars. The news dropped during yet another pivotal Mag 7 earnings week, five of the biggest names are reporting on Q1 results.

The most important number the market is watching for is CapEx: in the last round of reporting the big boys said they expected to spend upwards of $630B this year on AI. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google report tomorrow night.

Also dropping tomorrow, the final decision in the two day FOMC rate meeting that started Tuesday. CME FedWatch has the no-change probability at 83%, rates expected to hold steady at 3.50% to 3.75% Wednesday. It’s also Powell’s last likely presser. 😥

The one bright spot: consumer confidence hit its highest reading of 2026 in April, climbing to 92.8 on improved job market expectations. Small comfort when the Magnificent 7 all report after the bell Wednesday and the entire AI investment thesis is suddenly on trial. 🎯

The brokerage that built its brand on free trades and meme stock mayhem reported Tuesday after the close, and the headline told two stories at once: a company genuinely diversifying beyond crypto, and one that still couldn't clear a bar Wall Street had already lowered going in.

The RIP: $HOOD posted $0.38 diluted EPS, a penny shy of the $0.39 consensus, on revenue of $1.07B, missing the $1.14B estimate and growing just 15% year over year. Crypto revenue cratered -47% to $134M. Options held at $260M (+8%) and equities surged to $82M (+46%). The sleeper number: event contracts — prediction markets — hit a record 8.8 billion contracts traded, generating $147M in other transaction revenue, up 320%.

“In Q1, customers remained engaged and rapidly adopted new products, leading to a 20 percent-plus annualized net deposit growth rate, double digit growth across equities and options, and record volumes for prediction markets, futures, and index options," said Shiv Verma, Chief Financial Officer of Robinhood.

The miss stings less when you read the rest of the filing. Gold subscribers hit a record 4.3 million, up 36%. The margin book more than doubled to $17B. Total platform assets grew 39% to $307B. Net interest revenue climbed 24% to $359M as lending scaled. Cantor Fitzgerald had a $110 price target heading in. The question after tonight is whether the revenue miss and raised expense outlookgives the bears enough to work with. 🪶

Read the full breakdown, jump into the $HOOD stream on Stocktwits, and tell us what to ask the CFO on StocktwitsTV during a live AMA tomorrow →

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The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that OpenAI has been missing user and revenue targets for over a year, and CFO Sarah Friar has reportedly started pushing back on Sam Altman's IPO timeline. The company sits at the center of the entire AI capex trade, which means its stumble isn't a single-company problem.

$NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, and $CRWV each slid Tuesday, with $CRWV down more than -5% and SoftBank sinking nearly -10% in Tokyo. Power infrastructure names followed, with $VRT off nearly -8% and the Philly Semi Index down -4%.

Read the full breakdown, weigh in with the AI community on Stocktwits, and tell us whether this is a speed bump or the moment the circular capex trade finally breaks →

The UAE announced Tuesday it will exit OPEC on May 1 after nearly six decades, citing production quota tensions with Saudi Arabia and a war-driven market that moves faster than the cartel can. With the UAE free to ramp independently, Saudi Arabia just lost its most credible swing-producer ally at the worst possible moment.

Brent crossed $112 a barrel Tuesday, erasing all ceasefire-driven gains. The UAE held roughly 12% of total OPEC supply pre-war, carries 660,000 barrels per day of idle spare capacity, and has a stated target of 5 million barrels per day by 2027.

The names most exposed to a structurally weaker OPEC are already moving, and the conversation is just starting →

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We're offering a limited number of fully comped tickets for members who want to show up, represent, and help make this night as special as it should be.

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Macro: ADP Employment Change (Apr) (8:15 AM ET), GDP Advance Estimate (QoQ) (Q1) (8:30 AM ET), EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10:30 AM ET), FOMC Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET), Fed Chair Powell Press Conference (2:30 PM ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $SNDL, $SOFI SoFi Techs, $ETSY, $ABBV Abbvie Inc, $AMRN Amarin Corp, +43 more. ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $AMZN Amazon.com Inc, $META Meta Platforms Inc, $MSFT Microsoft Corp, $GOOG Alphabet, $GOOGL Alphabet Inc, +56 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

📈 Not sure how to handle this market? See how Leaderboard’s experts do it for less than $1/day*

😨 Powell's term as Fed chair is ending. Here's why he could stick around longer.

🏠 GM: Iran war causing cost increases, but pricey vehicles continue to sell

💰 Musk says it's not ok to 'loot a charity' as he takes the stand in OpenAI trial

📺 Joby flies first point-to-point air taxi flight tests in New York

👀 Live updates: King Charles III calls US-UK bond ‘unbreakable’; DOJ indicts Comey again

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