Happy Wednesday, the market fell after the Fed dropped what everyone was expecting: no change to target Federal Funds Rate. The reason for the sell off, aside form the all time highs, was the economic projection.

Basically, the heads of the Fed see inflation reaching closer to 4% this year than 2%, and rates climbing right alongside prices. Even SpaceX was not bold enough to keep climbing after that news.

Stocktwits chatter is clustered around AI infrastructure, broken mega-cap software, and a few retail-favorite squeezers. $NBIS is the cleanest community read, $MSFT/$NOW/$CRM are the enterprise software pain trade, and $HIMS/$HOOD are where the risk-on crowd is still trying to make something happen.

The White House finally released the 14-point draft the U.S. and Iran reps signed to bring the most recent ceasefire over the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump hopes to get more signatures down before the week is out.

Under the hood, this was less about one Fed decision and more about what still gets paid for. AI infrastructure kept catching a bid, while enterprise software names were treated like someone found a surprise “capex forever” clause in the fine print.

Robinhood, the trading app that turned retail order flow into a public-company business model, ripped Wednesday after investors decided layoffs look different when trading volumes are hitting records.

The RIP: $HOOD jumped 8.8% to $105.20, after touching $110.73 intraday. The company said it will cut 10% of full-time employees, book $20M in cash restructuring costs and $8M in stock-based comp charges, and cited record June trading volumes across equities, options, and prediction markets in its filing.

The market read this as margin expansion, not distress. That is the whole difference. Robinhood is already sitting on stronger customer engagement, including 27.7M funded customers and $377B in total platform assets as of May, so cutting headcount while volumes are hot gave bulls a cleaner operating-leverage story. The risk is that the same stock that loves lean costs also tends to hate any sign the retail trading cycle is peaking.

Community is bullish, message volume is high across ~98.6k watchers. The stream was split between breakout believers and traders calling the $110 area short-term resistance.

Tell the $HOOD room: lean or late →

SpaceX is public and trading on Nasdaq under $SPCX. If you want to lean into the daily move, there is now a fund built for it.

Meet $SPCU, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF (Cboe: SPCU). It seeks 200% of the daily performance of SpaceX stock.

➡ 2X daily exposure to SpaceX

➡ Trades like a stock

➡ No options chain to leg into

➡ No margin account required

SPCU is a leveraged single-stock ETF that resets its 2X exposure each day and trades intraday just like a stock, so your daily result is tied to a single session, up or down. Built for short-term, tactical use, not buy and hold.

If you have been waiting years for a public-market shot at SpaceX, the wait is over.

🚀 Now live on Cboe. SPCU is trading today.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

Short-term investment. Leveraged funds carry significant risk. The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the underlying security's performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the underlying security's performance increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day. An investment in the Fund is not a direct investment in SpaceX. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

The FOMC, led by a new king of the money (FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh) delivered a classic maintain decision Wednesday. The projection material, the dot plot famous among nerds like me shows how governors expect inflation, unemployment, and the Fed’s target rates to play out, was the fear factor that helped convince high prices to fall.

The RIP: FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% in a 12-0 vote. The June SEP lifted 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% from 2.7% in March, core PCE to 3.3% from 2.7%, and the projected year-end fed funds rate to 3.8% from 3.4%.

The statement, in a drastic change from the stuffy decorum of the past FOMC, was just three paragraphs. In my last role at a brokerage, we had an automated tracker to check exactly what wording had changed in the newest FOMC statement, I worry that their servers might have lit on fire with how much was different today. 😆

So nothing changed, what’s the big deal? The FOMC put together a dot plot that showed some grim realities facing the American economy. By years end, they expect inflation to hit 3.6%, up nearly a full % point from the last read- mostly based on a whopping hundred day long war that is still wrapping up. Also, last years tariffs (uncle sam is paying them back), and insanity level AI capex from the worlds largest companies is not helping.

Based on that reality, NINE of the twelve FOMC voters expect a rate HIKE by year’s end. That means borrowing money is more expensive for corporate bonds aswell as home, car, and personal credit loans. But the goal of course is that treasury bills pay back more, so hopefully inflationary spending simmers down. It also cuts into stock market spending, corporate profits, and earnings. Warsh did not place his own dot, a new boss in favor of less transparency at the FOMC.

“Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” Warsh said in his first press conference, while treasuries sold off, the dollar climbed, and stocks went red.

The rate hike pain showed up fastest in the names where higher rates actually bite: $CVNA got smoked as used-car credit and funding worries came back, $EFX sold off with the mortgage and consumer-credit complex, and $SATS faded as speculative SpaceX-adjacent momentum cooled. Software also got dragged into the “money is not free” bucket, with $NOW, $CRM, and $MSFT all lower. The Fed said less, but the tape heard plenty. 🏦

Moderna, the mRNA vaccine developer still trying to prove it has life after COVID, surged Wednesday after FDA briefing documents gave traders a cleaner setup into Thursday’s flu-shot advisory vote.

The RIP: $MRNA ( ▲ 0.97% ) jumped 11.6% to $61.80, after touching $62.30 intraday. The FDA’s advisory committee meets June 18 to discuss MFLUSIVA, Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine, for adults 50 years and older. Trial data showed a 27% reduction in flu-like illness versus a standard-dose flu shot.

This is a big swing because Moderna badly needs a non-COVID revenue bridge, and flu is one of the few recurring vaccine markets large enough to matter. The catch is that FDA staff still flagged questions around how the data holds up across flu seasons and older-adult populations, so Thursday’s vote is less victory lap and more “please let this pipeline story breathe again.”

Community is bullish, message volume is high across ~110.8k watchers. The room was focused on FDA odds, short squeeze mechanics, and whether the flu shot can become a recurring revenue product.

Make your $MRNA case: flu bridge or squeeze →

Nebius, the AI cloud infrastructure company spun out of the old Yandex orbit, climbed again Wednesday. It was one of the lucky winners added to the Nasdaq-100, alongside Astera Labs, CoreWeave, and Rocket Lab, and fans are excited. The stocks land on the index June 22, with $800B in passive investment assets ready to start buying their share.

The RIP: $NBIS ( ▲ 1.37% ) rose 6.0% to $280.91, after touching $297.93 intraday.

The bull case is simple: GPUs, cloud capacity, and hyperscaler alternatives are still getting paid. The bear case is just as simple: after a monster move, $NBIS is now a momentum name with index buyers behind it and valuation gravity waiting in front of it.

Community is neutral, message volume is normal across ~43.8k watchers. The stream was loud but split between long-term AI believers, profit-takers, and traders warning that a hawkish Fed can hit high-multiple momentum names fast.

Tell the $NBIS room: index bid or blowoff →

$RXT ( ▼ 5.05% ) Rackspace ⚡: ripped +21% after AMD AI compute deal kept squeezing shorts

$MSFT ( ▼ 0.34% ) Microsoft ⚡: dropped -4% after AI capex worries pressured software leaders

$CRM ( ▼ 1.82% ) Salesforce: sank -4% after AI deal anxiety extended record losing streak

$TTD ( 0.0% ) Trade Desk ⚡: fell -4% after ad-tech competition fears kept weighing

$SATS ( ▼ 3.96% ) EchoStar: slid -8% after SpaceX IPO pressure hit satellite peers

$CTRA ( ▼ 8.46% ) Coterra: tanked -8% after SEC deregistration filing spooked holders

$CVNA ( ▲ 7.33% ) Carvana: cratered -10% after used-car profit worries returned fast

SpaceX is public and trading on Nasdaq under $SPCX. If you want to lean into the daily move, there is now a fund built for it.

Meet $SPCU, the Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SpaceX ETF (Cboe: SPCU). It seeks 200% of the daily performance of SpaceX stock.

➡ 2X daily exposure to SpaceX

➡ Trades like a stock

➡ No options chain to leg into

➡ No margin account required

SPCU is a leveraged single-stock ETF that resets its 2X exposure each day and trades intraday just like a stock, so your daily result is tied to a single session, up or down. Built for short-term, tactical use, not buy and hold.

If you have been waiting years for a public-market shot at SpaceX, the wait is over.

🚀 Now live on Cboe. SPCU is trading today.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

Short-term investment. Leveraged funds carry significant risk. The Fund is not suitable for all investors. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage, and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. The Fund is not intended to be used by, and is not appropriate for, investors who do not intend to actively monitor and manage their portfolios. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the underlying security's performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the underlying security's performance increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day. An investment in the Fund is not a direct investment in SpaceX. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

🤑 Read the 14-Point Draft Memorandum Between the US and Iran

⛈ Tropical Storm Arthur path tracker: 1st named storm forms near Texas coast, with ‘life-threatening’ flash flooding expected across parts of the Southeast

💰 Allbirds continues AI pivot with name change and CEO hire, sending stock soaring

📺 Trump Says US Not Investing ‘10 Cents’ In Iran Amid $300B Fund Reports — But Adds Other Nations Are Free To Invest If They Choose

Macro: Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $KR Kroger, $ACN Accenture Plc Class A. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $RTON Right On Brands Inc, $IHT Innsuites Hospitality Trust. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Want to see some change? Email Kevin Travers feedback, follow him on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast!

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