The market was in the green Thursday, again. The ceasefire news this week brought equities to where they were when the war sent prices into a nose dive. Now, all the other themes we forgot while oil was $110/barrel are back. Saaspocolypse is back, baby, and so are AI overspend, tariffs, macro woes. It’s like a whole new market.

The strait is still mostly closed, unfortunately; oil tankers filled with tens of millions in crude seem cautious to pass through. It is all up to Vice President JD Vance and his negotiation efforts, but oil halted its climb today after Israel agreed to talk to Lebanon. 🤞

Inflation numbers came in Thursday, not much changed from the last report, still hot at 3%. Core PCE was down slightly YoY, but climbing at the same rate month over month in February. PCE including fuel and food was the same YoY at 2.8%, but the month-over-month increase was slightly higher in February than in January.

Consumer spending barely rose, reflecting the war and high-cost world, but recuring jobless claims fell, showing workers are finding their way back to employment.

All that to say inflation is still here, and next time it prints the Fed will watch as the war exploded fuel prices in March. Wartime data is arriving in May; multiple government shutdowns have set data collection a whole month later than it should be. At this rate, by June we should see more regular inflation data from April, still higher after fuel prices climb alongside the 50% jump in oil.

Artemis II is set to splashdown in the ocean tomorrow, returning home from as far away as anyone has ever been. 🧑‍🚀

It was a great green day for the booze industry, and I don’t hear anyone complaining. After years of lower prices following an intense no-fun-allowed pandemic and bummer political environments that made keggers hard to plan, the industry has been in a tough spot. Throw in demographic down turns from anemic drinking numbers from younger generations, not to mention alternatives like THC that cause way less heart disease, and it’s refreshing to see a genuine green alcohol day.

One stock climbed on buyout rumors, and another on a cost cutting caused earnings beat.

Brown-Forman notched its best session in years on Thursday, with $BF.B ( ▲ 12.89% ) surging +12.9% as the Wall Street Journal reported buyout interest in the Jack Daniel’s parent company, just days after similar talks with another brand. WSJ reported the Fireball brand owner Sazerac was in talks for a buyout. Jack Daniel’s is living large, already in talks with potential French buyer Pernod Ricard.

The RIP: the stock is up 29% since March 26; TD Cowen pegs a takeover premium at 30% to 35%.

Holders of $BF.B are now trading a takeover premium, not fundamentals, and should watch whether the Brown family engages with its 67% voting control after rejecting Constellation a decade ago. A Sazerac deal faces antitrust scrutiny, it would bring a massive 40% whiskey market share, according to TD Cowen analysts. Pernod talks might mean investors see a battle between multiple bidders. With the stock still down over 30% from its 52-week high, any failed talks risk a swift unwind. 🥃

Beer Beat Lowers Bar: Constellation Brands rallied Thursday after Q4 results cleared lowered expectations, with $STZ ( ▲ 8.53% ) climbing +8.5% despite management pulling long-term guidance.

The RIP: $STZ reported $1.90 adjusted EPS vs $1.71 estimate; revenue $1.92B vs $1.88B consensus; the company authorized a $900M share buyback. Lowered its 2027 guidance, and withdrew fiscal 2028 guidance completely.

The importer of Modelo and Corona said it saw slight increases in key demographics, but overall immigration raids and affordability are still hitting the Hispanic demographic hard, according to the company.

$STZ should focus on the next quarter: the beat was driven by cost control and buybacks while Corona volumes fell 9% and Modelo slowed. Management scrapping 2028 targets signals limited visibility as health-conscious consumers trade down. 🍺

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The AI-displacement trade hit software stocks hard again Thursday as $PLTR ( ▼ 7.3% ) tumbled -7% after short seller Michael Burry posted that Anthropic is eating Palantir's lunch, triggering a sector-wide selloff. Burry posted his thoughts Wednesday, deleted his idea Thursday, as PLTR fell.

Burry's claim landed the same day Anthropic launched Managed Agents, a hosted service for autonomous AI tasks that directly competes with enterprise software workflows. The argument: one AI subscription replaces 10 software seats.

The RIP: Saaspocolypse names were down: $ZS, $CRWD, $DDOG, $NOW, $TEAM, $INTU, $SHOP, $ADSK, and $AXON all fell -6% to -11% on no individual news. The irony is that Palantir's own CEO has been making this exact argument about competitors for two years. The SaaS ETF is now down over 20% YTD. The $IGV ( ▼ 3.9% ) ETF — the heartbeat of the software sector — is seeing its steepest decline of the quarter.

Why Retail Should Care:

This isn't just a dip, it’s a structural shift. Retailers who piled into AI-adjacent software like $PLTR and $SNOW ( ▼ 11.83% ) are worried about the burn as institutional money rotates into "harder" assets. When the $IGV breaks down this sharply, it usually signals that the "Software as a Service" premium is being permanently discounted for a high-rate, high-cost AI environment.

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Macro: CPI (MoM/YoY/Core) (Mar) (8:30 AM ET), Michigan Survey (Sentiment/Expectations/Inflation) (10:00 AM ET), Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb) (10:00 AM ET), U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count (Oil + Total) (1:00 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $TORO, $UXIN. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $IFBD Infobird Co Ltd. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

📈 Vance: Israel offered to restrain strikes in Lebanon during U.S.-Iran talks

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😨 APLD Stock Tumbles Despite Q3 Beat — Analyst Says Applied Digital Remains A 'Top Pick', Recommends Buying On Weakness

🏠 Automatic U.S. military draft registration planned by December, filing shows

💰 Gen Z is driving IRA contributions to record highs. Here's how to get started.

📺 Artemis II latest updates: Crew prepares for splashdown on last full day in space as Orion returns to Earth

👀 Melania Trump denies ties to Jeffrey Epstein and calls on Congress to hold a hearing for survivors

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