The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly made new all-time highs today before reversing to the downside to close nearly flat. Defensive areas of the market are selling off after a major rate-cut-driven run, while tech managed to stay nearly flat. All eyes turn to the Fed decision, updated forecasts, and press conference for guidance on what’s next. 👀

Today's issue covers the market’s rate cut bet, infrastructure stocks nearing a breakout, and the day’s biggest partnership news. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 7 of 11 sectors closed green, with energy (+1.35%) leading and healthcare (-1.03%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

Most bullish/bearish symbols on Stocktwits at the close: 📈 $SWVL, $OMEX, $GLMD, $SNOA, $SMSI 📉 $ME, $TMDIF, $NKGN, $NVVE, $SPRC*

*If you’re a business and want to access this data via our API, email us.

With most developed market central banks turning their focus from inflation to employment and economic growth, Canada is among the first to see its consumer price readings reach their 2% target. 👏

The consumer price index posted its smallest YoY increase since February 2021, while the core measure cooled to its lowest level in about 40 months.

Analysts expect this reading to set the central bank up for a 50 bp cut, as it looks to bring the ‘neutral’ interest rate to a level that neither restricts nor stimulates growth. 😐

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the bond market is pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 bp cut tomorrow, given the continued cooling of the labor market. However, expectations have been extremely volatile, and the consensus view is that the Fed will cut just 25 bps so that it doesn’t send a ‘warning message’ to markets about the economy.

As for the U.S. economy, manufacturers continue to slow down their factories, according to U.S. steelmakers. Nucor and Steel Dynamics joined their Chinese counterparts in warning of lower profits ahead, citing weaker demand and pricing for its core ‘flat-rolled sheet steel’ product. ⚠️

The U.S. stock market remains optimistic, as two of the four major indexes hit new all-time highs today. The consensus view remains that the Fed’s ‘soft landing’ is intact, regardless of whether they go 25 or 50 bp tomorrow. That’s why today’s Chart of the Day highlights strength in infrastructure stocks below. However, bears argue that a recession is just around the corner and that the anticipation of ‘cheaper money’ is the only thing buoying stocks.

As always, time (and Jerome Powell) will tell. 🤷

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its first rate cut of the current cycle. And what better place to listen in and discuss the decision in real time than on Stocktwits? 👀

Join us on the $SPY stream tomorrow at 2:00 pm ET and follow $SPY on your Stocktwits watchlist to be notified when the action starts. Plus, after the Fed’s official stream ends, we’ll livestream Camel Finance’s reaction live on the platform.

This is the event of the week (and month), so make sure you join us and the rest of the Stocktwits community tomorrow at 2 pm ET! 👍

With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle expected to begin tomorrow and other central banks around the globe already lowering rates, global infrastructure stocks have been hot. 🏗️

Stocktwits user @gpaisa highlighted infrastructure ETF $PAVE, which is pushing back toward the top of its six-month consolidation near all-time highs.

Many investors expect them to remain in play going forward, with tomorrow’s rate cut as a potential catalyst for them to begin their next leg higher. 👍

If you like this chart and commentary, you’ll love our “Chart Art” newsletter. We’ll deliver you the best trade ideas and analysis from the Stocktwits community every evening by 8 pm ET.

And if you need another reason to join, you’ll receive a welcome email with a list of the top Stocktwits chartists to follow for real-time posts like this.

Some meaningful partnership news was announced, so let’s catch you up.

JPMorgan is in talks to buy Apple’s credit card business from Goldman Sachs, which is selling what’s left of its failed foray into consumer banking. While the discussions are still early, JPMorgan has a history of stepping into failed situations to pick up assets on the cheap. Reports are it’s seeking to purchase the $17 billion in loans on the Apple Card for less than face value, to account for elevated losses and provide it a ‘margin of safety.’ 🏦

Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines received approval from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to complete their planned merger. They’ll need to maintain the value of their airline reward systems and preserve several key routes, along with several other conditions to maintain the industry’s competitive landscape. ✈️

Intuitive Machines ($LUNR) jumped 64% after NASA awarded the company a near-space network contract with a maximum potential value of $4.82 billion. Shares are at a 7-month high after hours, and many traders expect them to retest their 2024 highs on this news. 🛰️

Microsoft and BlackRock formed “The Global Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Investment Partnership” to invest up to $100 billion in AI data centers and power. It will initially raise $30 billion but will likely ramp up over time if demand remains as robust as expected. 🤑

Economic data: Fed Interest Rate Decision (2:00 pm ET), Jerome Powell Press Conference (2:30 pm ET), Indonesia Interest Rate Decision (3:30 am ET), Brazil Interest Rate Decision (5:30 pm ET), MBA Mortgage Applications & Rates (7:00 am ET), and Building Permits & Housing Starts (8:30 am ET). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: General Mills ($GIS), Nano Labs ($NA), Fanhua ($FANH), Ermenegildo Zegna ($ZGN), and Lifezone Metals ($LZM). 🛏️

After-Hour Earnings: Steelcase ($SCS) and Sangoma Technologies ($SANG). 🎧

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

🥳 Where are the markets going? Watch this A.I. stock watchlist [LIVE]*

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🤩 Chart Art: The best trade ideas and analysis from the Stocktwits community

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