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NEWS
Trump Win Takes Risk Assets To New Highs

Markets hate uncertainty, and expectations were for a close and contested election. Instead, we saw a clear victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans in the Senate and likely the House of Representatives. While what’s said on the campaign trail and what’s done in office often differs, the market is betting big that the Trump administration’s policies will be pro-business and pro-markets, leading to a red-hot rally in risk assets. 👀

Today's issue covers the market’s biggest Trump trades, noteworthy earnings movers, and more from a wild day on Wall Street. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 8 of 11 sectors closed green, with financials (+6.08%) leading and real estate (-2.67%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

Most bullish/bearish symbols on Stocktwits at the close: 📈 $BOLT, $DXYZ, $FOXO, $CXW, $SONN 📉 $SMG, $CPS, $APPS, $OSCR, $SPR*

*If you’re a business and want to access this data via our API, email us.

STOCKS
Attitude Shifts From Fear To FOMO 🤯 

It was a wild day in the markets, with many assets moving sharply in both directions.

While what’s promised on the campaign trail and what comes to reality is often different, that didn’t stop investors and traders from speculating on the most prevalent and profitable themes under the new administration. So, let’s summarize what moved and the current narrative around why. 👇️ 

Small-caps soar: U.S. stocks rocketed to the upside, led by the small-cap Russell 2000. Trump’s focus on “America first” puts domestically-focused companies in the spotlight. Plus, an overall positive backdrop for risk assets has investors and traders willing to venture out on the risk spectrum to make bullish bets. 🥳 

Regional banks ramp: Remember how the regional banking sector was set to go down the tubes 18 months ago? Well, it’s roaring back on hopes that deregulation and a focus on the domestic economy will be good for business. Reduced capital requirements could set them up to drive additional profitability and free up capital for buybacks and dividends. The regional bank ETF $KRE was up 13% on the day, with other financials also soaring today for similar reasons. 🤑 

Bitcoin and crypto-linked stocks roar: An expectation for softer cryptocurrency regulations (and deregulation in general) drove the market. With many high-profile donors from the crypto and tech industry, what was once a major headwind for the industry may become a tailwind. Bitcoin hit new all-time highs, while crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Robinhood rose 31% and 19%, respectively. Miners like Marathon Digital and hodlers like MicroStrategy surged by double digits, too. 🪙 

Trump-linked stocks pump, then dump: Trump Media and Technology, Phunware, and Rumble all rose sharply as the election winner became clear, but they did not participate in today’s massive rally. While these were great public-market proxies for betting on Trump’s election odds, now business fundamentals will begin to matter. Most of these companies lack profitability (or operations) to support the shares. 🙃

Solar stocks extinguished: The regulatory and overall fiscal support for renewable energy will likely be softer than it was under the Biden administration, weighing on the sector. Additionally, tariffs could impact the China-linked industry. And higher rates keeping housing activity low and financing costs high for new projects will hurt demand. SolarEdge slumped 22% in regular trading and fell another 21% after hours on earnings. And solar ETF $TAN fell 11% on the day. ⛈️ 

Electric Vehicle (EV) stocks slump (except Tesla): With regulatory support for electric vehicles likely to lessen under the Trump administration, many view this industry headwind as a positive for Tesla because of its massive head start in the space. Additionally, Elon Musk’s close relationship with Trump and Trump’s focus on ‘beating’ China are seen as major tailwinds for the next several years. ⚡️ 

Marijuana stocks were smoked: With Kamala Harris and the democratic party seen as more pro-marijuana, much of the optimism around reclassification at the federal level was taken out of the market. Additionally, with states like Florida voting against recreational marijuana (albeit by a small margin), the regulatory environment will likely remain challenging for these companies. Popular ETFs like $MSOS, $MJ, $YOLO, and others were down between 15% and 20% on the day. 😶‍🌫️

Chinese stocks failed to fly: One foreign market that didn’t participate in today’s rally was China, for obvious reasons. With Trump expected to take a hard-line approach to China and other economic adversaries, many investors see risk in owning stocks listed in the country as geopolitical tensions heat up. 🌏️ 

U.S. Dollar and rates soar, weighing on commodities: Today was all about the U.S. Dollar in the foreign currency world. Putting America first means our currency will be all that more important for global commerce. If the U.S. economy continues to grow at a faster pace than the rest of the world, rates will likely stay high on a relative basis, too, keeping demand for the U.S. Dollar high. 💲 

Housing and real-estate stocks slump: Higher rates are the story here. Mortgage rates above 7% have already choked housing market activity and frozen commercial real estate transactions, but if Trump’s policies keep rates higher for longer, then the pain in these sectors could persist. 🏘️ 

Consumer staples go stale: Consumer-brand-focused conglomerates like Pepsi and Mondelez fell on fears that Tariffs would drive higher prices and hurt demand among their U.S. customers. Transaction volumes have already struggled amid “shrinkflation” and changing consumer trends, so higher prices would pressure sales further. 🍪 

These were some of the biggest themes in markets today. As we noted, some of these moves are knee-jerk reactions to what investors think is ahead for U.S. government policy and the economy. Eventually, the actual fundamentals will matter, but for now, the market’s trading on expectations (aka vibes), which remain bullish. 🐂 

For more on how the Stocktwits community is taking advantage of the current bull run, you can find the top trade ideas and analysis in today’s Chart Art newsletter. 👈️ 

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