U.S. stocks fell Wednesday, despite a slight rise in reaction to the heavily anticipated FOMC decision to raise target rates to 3.75%-4%. Shortly after the decision, made unanimously by the 12 voting parties, Kevin Warsh did his best as FOMC Chair to not answer any questions at all during the press conference. The ten year yield continued to climb, despite the move, bonds sold off slightly to end even higher.

The simplest explanation, outside of 60+ months of inflation over 2% being really bad, is that rates do NOT affect oil prices. Oil shortages will only get worse, prices will climb, and the FOMC will likely raise rates again this year, keeo them higher for longer. Good news is, a 10-year note right now carries about half the historical return on the S&P 500, or 10%, with basically none of the risk.

The Dow dropped 1.2% and gave back 52,000, while the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Russell 2000 lost 0.4%, and the Nasdaq finished flat. Technology led the two green sectors. Energy sank 2.9% as crude fell 3.6%.

Stocktwits chatter clustered around $BA, $RCAT, $DJT, $QS, and $SOFI, with retail bearish on three of the five.

Today's Briefing: Powered by Stocktwits Community API.

J.B. Hunt, the trucking and intermodal freight giant, plunged Wednesday after CFO Brad Delco warned that surging diesel, labor, and insurance costs would cut third-quarter profit. The company rarely gives explicit earnings guidance between reports, so investors listened.

The RIP: $JBHT ( ▼ 13.3% ) fell 13.3% to $236.73 on 4.8M shares, about 6.2 times its recent pace. The stock finished near its session low of $235.16.

J.B. Hunt expects third-quarter earnings to fall 5%-10% from the second quarter. The company faces roughly $25M in added driver costs from hiring, bonuses, and raises, plus a nearly $10M sequential fuel headwind and higher claims expenses.

That warning implies EPS closer to $1.77, well below the $2.09 analysts expected. Improving freight volumes should offset some pain, and expensive diesel can push more freight toward J.B. Hunt’s rail-heavy intermodal network. For now, the costs arrived faster than the benefit.

The Community Read: The $JBHT room is bullish, see the diesel-cost debate ->

Ocugen announced the first patient has been dosed in the global Phase 3 ArMaDa3 trial of OCU410, its investigational modifier gene therapy for geographic atrophy secondary to dry AMD.

OCU410 recently received FDA Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy designation, providing enhanced FDA engagement and potential eligibility for accelerated approval and priority review. The Phase 3 design is fully aligned with the FDA, with a BLA filing anticipated in 2028.

Designed as a potential one-time subretinal gene therapy, OCU410 targets multiple disease pathways, unlike currently approved therapies that address individual pathways and require ongoing eye injections every year. Phase 2 results demonstrated a 31% reduction in lesion growth with the optimal dose versus control following a single administration, with no OCU410-related serious adverse events or adverse events of special interest.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

🤖 Morgan Stanley Backs SpaceX’s AI Potential , Expects Firm Could Help Deliver Greater Computing Power At Lower Cost

📊 BA Stock Drops Over 5% After Boeing CEO Says 737 Production Is Still Not Stable — 777X Deliveries On Track For 2027

🧬 RARE Stock Hits Fresh 52-Week Low As Sanfilippo Drug Ruling Nears — Failed Angelman Syndrome Trial Weighs On Shares

🪙 The crypto move you missed today, explained before you wake up to it

Fluence Energy, a battery-storage systems and software provider, cratered after hours Wednesday after cutting its fiscal 2026 outlook again. The Houston manufacturing ramp that already pushed sales into 2027 is still running behind.

The RIP: $FLNC fell 2.7% to $9.05 during the regular session, then plunged another 17.4% to $7.48 after hours. The stock entered the announcement down 61% this year.

Fluence cut its annual revenue forecast to $2.4B from a previous midpoint of $3B. Its projected adjusted EBITDA loss ballooned from $10M to $200M.

Demand is not the problem. The company says production delays at its contract manufacturer are stopping it from turning a large backlog into revenue and cash. Corrective measures have increased daily output, but investors have heard the backlog argument before.

Fluence also named former AES executive Bernerd Da Santos as operating chief and is restructuring supply-chain planning. Management wants neutral to positive operating cash flow in fiscal 2027 without outside capital. A loss revision this large makes that promise tougher to swallow.

The Community Read: The $FLNC room is bearish, see the Houston bottleneck debate ->

The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023 on Wednesday, and Kevin Warsh’s first big move as chair was the opposite of what the White House wanted. Stocks rolled over as he said inflation remained too high and the committees forward looking projection showed most left another increase on the table for this year.

The RIP: The Fed voted 12-0 to raise its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. The median projection put the year-end rate at 4.1%, implying another hike. Twelve officials penciled in one more increase, four expected two more, and two favored holding here. Core PCE inflation is projected at 3.4%.

Warsh said labor risks are pretty balanced, but this summer's inflation numbers did nothing to change his mind: rates had to come up.

“The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long,” Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, said Wednesday. “Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane.”

The Fed cannot produce more oil, as Warsh answered the very first question which posited a rate bump cannot open the Strait of Hormuz, but Warsh said it can stop an energy shock from spreading into wages and prices. Core PCE is still above the Fed’s 2% target, and has been for 65 months. Yields kept climbing after the increase, the ten-year still a full percent above the newly set goal funds rate.

“Rather unfortunate decision,” White House spokesman Kush Desai told Fox News Wednesday.

Borrowers get the immediate bill through costlier credit cards, auto loans, and some mortgages. $XHB homebuilders and $KRE regional banks are caught between higher financing costs and a Fed that says it is not finished. Rates may continue to go up, the White House may keep bombing Iran to send fuel prices through the roof, and borrowing costs may not come down till 2028.

AustiniConnections, Atreides and Valor are bringing together the CEOs, investors and operators driving TMT for two days at the Moody Center.

Main stage keynotes span public and private markets — Nvidia, Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, Databricks, Arm, Cerebras, Crusoe, Vercel, DoorDash, 8VC and more — with breakout tracks across labs, silicon, power and capital. 

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

15.3K WATCHERS · BEARISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Lumentum led the optical rebound after Ciena forecast roughly 30% annual revenue growth through 2029, with a 50% adjusted gross margin and 32%-35% operating margin.

35.5K WATCHERS · NEUTRAL · NORMAL ACTIVITY

First Solar withdrew its Section 337 patent complaint at the ITC and will keep pursuing TOPCon infringement lawsuits in federal court against affiliates of Canadian Solar, JinkoSolar, T1 Energy, and Trina Solar.

34.3K WATCHERS · BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY

Goldman CEO David Solomon said third-quarter fixed-income trading was softer than equities and warned noncompensation expenses would run more than $500M above the second quarter.

Bearish 🐻 | Bullish 🐮 | It’s Complicated 😵‍💫

Macro: Weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM ET), Building permits (8:30 AM ET), Housing starts (8:30 AM ET), Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (9:00 AM ET), GDPNow (9:00 AM ET), +2 more. 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $KNDI Kandi Technologies Group Inc, $VFS VinFast Auto Ltd., $YRD Yiren Digital Ltd - ADR. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $ADSE Ads-Tec Energy Plc. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Want to see some change? Email me, Kevin Travers, with feedback, and follow me on Stocktwits. Send me charts and ideas! Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast 😎

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