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CLOSING BELL
Whose War Is This, Anyway?

The market climbed Wednesday, as good news for one chip designer reminded the world that semi’s do in fact still exist.

The chip sector climbed in a single-day reversal after Arm said it was finally making its own chips. AMD, Intel, Marvell jumped on the news, even [alleged] smuggler Super Micro climbed. It also helped that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told podcaster Lex Fridman that "I think we've achieved AGI."

Oil was pulling back, as back-and-forth reports from the White House and Iran made the four-week war look truly on pause. Trump said he is receiving great compliments from whoever he is talking to in Iran, proposing a peace deal, while sending paratroopers. Iran said ‘no way is Trump talking to anyone, here is a 5-point plan to let us keep control of the Strait of Hormuz.’

The S&P 500 closed +0.5%, the Nasdaq +0.6%, the Russell 2000 +1.2%, and the Dow +0.6% as broad-based buying returned across nearly every sector except energy. 👀

INDUSTRY NEWS
ARM Stops Licensing and Starts Competing 🐿

The chip designer that spent its entire career selling blueprints to other people decided Tuesday it wants to make its own chips now, and $ARM ( ▲ 16.38% ) surged Wednesday as investors figured out what that means for a company that has never actually touched silicon in 33 years of business. We covered this yesterday, but today the stock climbed so much it brought the chip industry with it.

The new chip is called the AGI CPU, unveiled at an event in San Francisco with Meta named as the headline customer. CEO Rene Haas told the crowd it will generate $15B in revenue by 2031 on its own, with total annual revenue hitting $25B and EPS of $9, roughly six times what Arm made in all of 2025. Agentic AI needs up to four times more CPU cores per gigawatt of data center capacity than traditional workloads, and Arm built this chip for exactly that bottleneck.

Arm built its 96% margin business by staying out of everyone's way. By selling finished silicon it now partially competes with the same chip companies that pay it licensing fees, a dynamic that will test a lot of business relationships fast. HSBC had already double-upgraded the stock Friday with a $205 target, and the stock trades at a P/E above 180.

AMD surged +7% as the x86 alternative that benefits every time CPU demand expands beyond Nvidia's GPU dominance. Intel jumped +7% on the same logic, Marvell gained +7% as custom AI chip names caught the broad validation bid. Even Hewlett Packard Enterprise climbed +8% as the server hardware layer that physically houses all these chips, Dell was up 4% with AI server demand optimism lifting rack-scale and personal PCs. 💻

BEFORE THE BELL
Chewy Beats the No Cash Allegations 🐶

Chewy $CHWY ( ▲ 13.31% ) surged after reporting Q4 results that technically missed EPS by a penny at $0.27 vs. $0.28 expected, but investors looked past it when they saw a record $232M in free cash flow, +30% growth in adjusted EBITDA to $162.3M, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $13.6B to $13.75B, above the $13.58B consensus. Active customers grew 4% to 21.3M, and the Autoship recurring program now represents 84% of net sales. The model is working and the cash is real.

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IPO NEWS
Retail Finds the Back Door Into Private Tech 💽

Two closed-end funds giving everyday investors access to pre-IPO AI giants surged Wednesday, with $DXYZ ( ▲ 15.31% ) jumping and $VCX ( ▲ 20.64% ) ripping as the trade around publicly listed private tech vehicles picked up serious momentum. SpaceX IPO rumors hit the tape again Wednesday, sending these funds higher.

Last weeks listing of the Fundrise Innovation Fund ($VCX) follows the March 2024 debut of Destiny Tech100 ($DXYZ) and the more recent launch of Robinhood Ventures Fund I ($RVI). While these vehicles aim to offer liquid access to SpaceX and OpenAI, the disconnect between market price and underlying asset value has reached extreme levels. 🦄

The most valuable technology companies in the world, OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks, Anduril, are staying private longer than any generation of companies before them, and until now retail investors had essentially no path to own them.

Closed-end funds historically compress toward Net Asset Value, or the price of what is actually held in the fund over time, meaning the premium you pay today is the first is priced a little higher than what the fund holds. Wednesday's moves suggest retail is not particularly concerned about that math right now. When Arm is up +16% on an AGI CPU announcement and the chip sector is ripping, anything with OpenAI or Anthropic in the portfolio is going to attract the same energy. 🚀

RETAIL NEWS
On Holding Runs Into the Consumer 👞

On Holding Slides on Leadership Shakeup: The Swiss running brand plummeted 11.2% on Wednesday following the surprise announcement that CEO Martin Hoffmann will step down on May 1, a move that overshadows recent fundamental strength and injects fresh uncertainty into the company's global expansion strategy.

While the leadership transition to co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti suggests a return to a "founder-led" model, the timing of the departure — coupled with a recent FY26 revenue guide that trailed analyst expectations — has fueled concerns about a cooling growth trajectory. With a rich valuation multiple and premium pricing in a tightening discretionary environment, $ONON ( ▼ 11.19% ) is facing a credibility test as it navigates both a C-suite reset and a more "choiceful" consumer. 👟

TRENDING STOCKS
Pops & Drops

  • $SMCI ( ▲ 8.19% ) Super Micro: ripped +8% as retail dip buyers extended the post-indictment bounce for a third session

  • $INSM ( ▲ 6.59% ) Insmed: popped +7% after biotech caught a risk-on bid in the broader relief tape

  • $ALNY ( ▲ 6.7% ) Alnylam Pharmaceuticals: climbed +7% as large-cap biotech names participated in the day's risk-on session

  • $SRPT ( ▲ 34.98% ) Sarepta Therapeutics: surged +35% on heavy volume likely tied to a clinical or regulatory catalyst

  • $VRSK ( ▼ 4.97% ) Verisk Analytics: slid -5% after data analytics names sold off on valuation concerns

  • $DKNG ( ▼ 8.11% ) DraftKings: tanked -8% after the bipartisan Senate prediction market bill threatened its competitive landscape

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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET), 7-Year Note Auction (1:00 PM ET), Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (7:10 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $SKLZ, $PULM Pulmatrix Inc, $RMTI Rockwell Medical Inc, $CDZI Cadiz Inc, $BRTX BioRestorative Therapies Inc, $MIGI Mawson Infrastructure Group Inc, $LOVE Lovesac Company. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $BLNK Blink Charging Co, $NRDE Nu Ride Inc, $ANY Sphere 3D Corp, $BOXL Boxlight Corp, $IMNN Imunon Inc, $VANI Vivani Medical Inc, $POET POET Technologies Inc, $ENVB Enveric Biosciences Inc, +36 more. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Get In Touch 📬

Want to see some change? Email Kevin Travers feedback, follow him on Stocktwits. Refer a friend for this quarter’s edition of The RIP Forecast:

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter does not hold positions in any of the securities or assets mentioned. 📋

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