CLOSING BELL
GOOD MORNING VIETNAM

Alright, so today is officially ‘welcome to July.’ Some clever readers saw right through yesterday’s ruse. Have no fear, those responsible have been sacked, and their compatriots sent to the labor mines to churn out Stocktwits $SPY ( ▲ 0.45% ) posts. ⛏️ 

They had a lot to cover: the S&P 500 hit a record high, as a massive spending bill hit its head against the know-it-alls in the House. The White House announced a fresh potential inflation deal with Vietnam. Tesla showed off a massive decline in deliveries, but its investors celebrated because hey at least they made more cars than ever in the Q2… now they just have to sell them. 👀

Today's issue covers Tesla climbing on last quarter's bad news, health insurers getting hit by GOP cuts, Vietnam’s deal, and more. 📰

With the final numbers for indexes and the ETFs that track them, 7 of 11 sectors closed green, with energy $XLE ( ▲ 1.72% ) leading and health care $XLV ( ▼ 0.99% ) lagging.

S&P 500 $SPY ( ▲ 0.45% ) 6,227

Nasdaq 100 $QQQ ( ▲ 0.7% ) 22,641

Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 1.39% ) 2,226

Dow Jones $DIA ( ▼ 0.04% ) 44,484

STOCKS
Tesla Climbed On Bad News, Bulls Keep Winning 🥲 

Tesla climbed despite news that would make any other stock look bad; it’s like EV bulls just keep winning! 🥕 

Tesla reported a Q2 14% decline in deliveries, the second period in a row of YoY decline. Shares are down 26% this year, but climbed 5% Wednesday despite the bad news.

The firm delivered 384k vehicles in the second quarter, more than Q1 but down overall, and worse than Wall Street feared. One investor at DeepWater Asset Management said he expects this to be the bottom for Tesla deliveries.

It was not the only EV firm to hit the brakes. Rivian deliveries came in at 10,661 vehicles in the Q2, 22% less than last year’s spring.

INDUSTRY NEWS
Insurance Ain’t Looking Healthy No More ❤️‍🩹 

Centene fell a whopping 40%, and the healthcare sector fell overall on Tuesday. The once $20B market cap insurer and health care provider warned $1.8B in earnings misses, and analysts cut their views.

Why is 2025 going to be such a downer for health insurance? Well, the GOP is pushing through a bill through Congress that will cut health benefits for millions of Americans, and health insurers make money by offering health benefits.

Worse yet, Covid-era rules that, for example, allow customers to subscribe to multiple plans are expiring, pushing more users to cut their Centene service than the insurer had anticipated.

Jefferies's David Windley said that "Centene didn't anticipate the extent of this. The people left in the market are fewer and sicker, and that's killing the margins."

About 50% of Centene’s premiums come from Medicaid, and though it seems obvious to some analysts that the GOP was going to cut healthcare, the industry thought it would be less substantial. It was the worst day for the stock ever.

It wasn’t the only health care plan stock to suffer. $MOH ( ▼ 21.97% ) dropped, $UNH ( ▼ 5.7% ) was the lowest decliner on the Dow again, and $OSCR ( ▼ 18.73% ) fell.

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TRADE NEWS
Good Morning, Vietnam, And Welcome To The 20%

News out of Vietnam led the way to a fresh all-time high market after a midday Trump tweet (truth) that the White House reached a trade agreement.

The president wrote that Vietnam (or U.S. importers) will pay a 20% overall tariff on goods, and 40% on goods passing through. In return, Vietnam agreed to give ‘total access’ to their market, or in Trump speak 0% tariffs, and maybe more?

Trump said he can’t wait to see giant American-made SUVs hit the streets of Hanoi, but Vietnam has many roads only wide enough for small mopeds, so we’ll see if GM gets its hopes up. 🚙 

Exports to the U.S. account for 30% of Vietnam’s annual GDP, according to CNBC, leaving the country vulnerable to significant trade pain, so this is good news for apparel manufacturers based there.

$NKE ( ▲ 4.06% ) Nike climbed, Guess was up $GES ( ▲ 3.69% ) , Under Armor $UAA ( ▲ 1.83% ) and other retailers like VF Corp $VFC ( ▲ 1.96% ) and Lulu $LULU ( ▲ 0.48% ) climbed.

The news could not come soon enough. Today marks one week until the end of the 90-day pause, although the White House has gone back and forth on whether that means the super-large tariffs on most of the world will be reinstated. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the administration was going to start sending out deals to the top 18 or so partners. Sounds great, but today’s news marks only 3 announced trade truces.

On Tuesday, Trump said Japan is spoiled for holding out against auto tariffs and warned of 35% tariffs. Meanwhile, India is close to a deal, but both sides are stuck over what ‘Made in India’ means, according to Bloomberg. Washington says if manufacturers add 60% of value to goods traveling through India, that counts, but India wants just 35%. As a major passageway from the far east to the west, the White House does not want India to help shippers circumvent stricter tariffs placed on China.

The EU is also rushing to make a deal, facing 50% tariffs in a week if they can’t get an agreement through. Let’s hope the three-day weekend is what negotiators need to reset and give the White House something to announce MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. 🦅 

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POPS & DROPS
Top Stocktwits News Stories 🗞️ 

Jeff Bezos sold $737M in Amazon stock after wrapping a $50M wedding celebration in Venice, continuing his planned divestments and fueling speculation about future ventures. Read more

Ripple applied for a U.S. banking license to boost adoption of its stablecoin RLUSD and expand federal oversight of its crypto services. Read more

HPE rose after finalizing its $14B Juniper acquisition, boosting its AI-native networking push and projecting the combined segment to generate over half of operating income. Read more

Microsoft canceled multiple long-running gaming projects like Everwild and a new ZeniMax online RPG as its 9,000 layoffs reshape the Xbox division. Read more

Jack in the Box adopted a ‘poison pill’ plan after activist investor Sardar Biglari’s hedge fund disclosed a 9.9% stake and signaled intentions to acquire more. Read more

Wynn and other casino stocks jumped after Macau’s June casino revenue surged 19% to $2.61B, topping May’s growth pace. Read more

Analyst Updates:

Cava was rated Overweight by KeyBanc with a $100 target, citing its lead in Mediterranean fast-casual dining and strong nationwide expansion momentum. Read more

Ross Stores was upgraded to Buy by Jefferies with a $150 target, citing expected sales acceleration and EBIT margin expansion over the next three years. Read more

Stellantis was downgraded to Underperform at Wolfe with a €6 target after a 10% U.S. sales drop, raising major concerns about North American losses into 2026. Read more

Macro And Policy News

ADP said the private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June as hiring slowed, with steep cuts in professional and health services offsetting gains in manufacturing and mining. Read more

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said rate cuts could arrive by September, citing mild inflation from Trump’s tariffs and urging the Fed to act sooner. Read more

The U.S. Dollar posted its worst first-half performance since 1973, weighed down by Trump’s tariff threats, fiscal deficit concerns, and rising global de-dollarization momentum. Read more

Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️ 

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: Exports, Imports, Trade Balance (8:30 AM), Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM), Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (Jun) (8:30 AM), S&P Global PMI (9:45 AM), Factory Orders (10:00 AM), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM), FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (11:00 AM). 📊

Earnings: Nothing major. Enjoy the half-day of market trading!

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

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⚠️ OpenAI says it has not partnered with Robinhood for stock tokens

📺️ June jobs report expected to show hiring slowed while unemployment rate ticked higher

🏠️ Homeowner’s insurance premiums vary widely from state to state, but they are all going up

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