Market Flat For Start Of Fed Speak Week

Palo Alto climbs after the close, What data the FOMC will talk about, and more.

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Kevin Travers
August 18, 2025 • Reading Time: 15 minutes

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CLOSING BELL
Market Flat For Start Of Fed Speak Week

The market held back Monday as world leaders descended on the White House to find a united front against Russia after Friday night's ceasefire talks in Alaska went nowhere. Ukraine’s Zelensky met with Trump, alongside top reps from the UK, France, Finland, Germany, Italy, the EU’s President, and NATO Secretary-General.

This week will bring retail earnings data from giants like Walmart, and the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole summit. All eyes are on hints for how the FOMC will decide monetary policy in September, and how grocery stores have feared the latest batch of tariff changes. 👀

Today's issue covers Palo Alto climbs after the close, What data the FOMC will talk about, and more.   📰

With the final numbers for indexes and the ETFs that track them, 4 of 11 sectors closed green, with industrials $XLI ( ▲ 0.39% ) leading and real estate $XLRE ( ▼ 0.94% ) lagging.

STOCKS
Palo Alto Climbs After Beating Expectations

$PANW ( ▼ 0.52% ) Palo Alto Networks climbed after hours Monday, after the cybersecurity company reported Q4 results that met Street expectations.

Revenue climbed 16% in a year to $2.54B, the company ended the quarter with $2.27B in cash, and adjusted EPS of $0.95/share all beat estimates.

The company reaffirmed the guidance it offered last month, with an announcement to buy $CYBR ( ▼ 0.65% ) for $25B. The company aims to integrate CyberArk’s identity security technology to become the most comprehensive cybersecurity platform.

For the coming fiscal year, the firm expects 13% revenue growth to $10.38B.

"Our strong execution in Q4 reflects a fundamental market shift in which customers understand that a fragmented defense is no defense at all against modern threats," Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. 

PANW was the highest trending stock on Stocktwits Monday

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ECONOMIST CHATTER
FOMC Has A Big Decision To Make. JPM: “Money Doesn’t Talk Anymore” 🧠 

From David Kelly’s Notes on the Week Ahead newsletter

The FOMC has a big decision to make in September, as markets, bets, and voices call for rate cuts. Job market data at the beginning of August showed the worst additions in three years, and major reductions to past data. On the flip side, PPI inflation numbers rose at the fastest pace in two years. The Fed’s Jackson Hole summit begins this Wednesday, and investors expect a preview of the direction of monetary policy. Chair Powell has a chance, likely his last in Jackson Hole as the head of the Fed, to make a clear picture of where policy is headed.

How are they going to decide?

J.P. Morgan Economist David Kelly says the policy game is changing. One major reason: the long-honored metric of money supply has gone stale. Kelly argues that the M2 measure of money supply has officially become irrelevant. The Fed stopped targeting it decades ago, and velocity collapses have neutered its predictive power. The FOMC will have to use macro data, which is giving mixed signals, to choose the path:

📉 Monetarism once ruled the macro playbook, but its grip faded fast.

  • Milton Friedman’s “money = inflation” mantra dominated the 1970s

  • Volcker’s M2 targeting triggered two recessions but crushed inflation

  • By 1983, the Fed abandoned money supply targets entirely

💸 The mechanics of money have changed, and M2 no longer reflects real-world liquidity.

  • Velocity collapsed post-GFC and pandemic, offsetting M2 surges

  • Interest-bearing accounts, ETFs, and instant access tools blurred “money” definitions

  • M2 growth now diverges wildly from nominal GDP

📊 The Fed’s focus has shifted to demand-side components and long-term growth drivers. They are watching macro data like a hawk.

  • M2 is absent from Fed speeches, statements, and policy frameworks

  • Key signals: consumer spending, housing, business investment, trade, and government outlays

  • Long-term growth hinges on labor supply and productivity trends

TLDR: If the FOMC makes a move, it won’t be because of political chatter or measures of money supply; it will be with specific price inflation or labor data in hand. With PPI high and labor low, either holding or cutting asap seems plausible.

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POPS & DROPS
Top Tickers Today 🎞️ 

Air Canada continued to delay thousands of flights after 10,000 unionized flight attendants walked off the job.
$NNE ( ▼ 10.69% ) Nano Nuclear fell after Ladenburg downgraded the stock and slashed its price target by 75%, citing concerns over the company’s diversified strategy and lack of focus on its KRONOS reactor.
$DAY ( ▲ 25.98% ) Dayforce climbed after reports surfaced that private equity firm Thoma Bravo is in advanced talks to acquire the HR software provider, potentially valuing the deal at over $9 billion.
$AAOI ( ▲ 16.83% ) Applied Optoelectronics rose after announcing its first volume shipment of high-speed transceivers to a major hyperscaler, boosting investor sentiment despite recent earnings volatility.
$OPEN ( ▲ 19.24% ) Opendoor Technologies jumped as retail investors rallied behind leadership changes and bullish technical signals, including a Golden Cross and strong MACD momentum.
$CIFR ( ▲ 16.12% ) Cipher Mining gained after reporting $44M in Q2 revenue and energizing Black Pearl Phase I, with analysts raising price targets and praising its flexible infrastructure strategy for AI and crypto mining.

HOT OFF THE PRESSES
Top Stocktwits News Stories 🗞️ 

Soho House climbed 15% after news Ashton Kutcher is joining the board as part of a $2.7B take-private deal led by MCR Hotels, with shareholders receiving $9/share in cash—an 83% premium.

GoodRx flew 23%, the highest on the S&P 500, after Novo Nordisk announced Ozempic will be available for $499/month to Type 2 diabetes patients paying with cash on GoodRx and platforms like NovoCare Pharmacy.

Solar Stocks Climbed after the Treasury Department updated solar incentive rules last week by removing the 5% investment safe harbor for most projects, triggering rallies in FSLR, RUN, ENPH, SEDG, and NEE.

Intel fell despite further news that the Trump administration is considering converting $10.9B in Chips Act grants into a 10% equity stake in Intel to boost domestic semiconductor production.

Bitcoin slipped to $115,200 amid a broader crypto selloff that triggered $550M in liquidations, with Cardano and Solana leading altcoin losses.

Bitdeer Technologies Group rose 7% after reporting strong Q2 earnings, beating revenue estimates and reaffirming its 2025 mining capacity goals.

Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️ 

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: OPEC Monthly Report (7:00 AM), CPI (8:30 AM), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12:00 PM), Federal Budget Balance (2:00 PM). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: Altimmune ($ALT), Paysafe ($PSFE), Sea ($SE), Bitfarms ($BITF), Circle Internet Group ($CRCL). 🛏️

After-Hour Earnings: Inovio Pharmaceuticals ($INO), Rigetti Computing ($RGTI), LogicMark ($LGMK), Luminar Technologies ($LAZR), CoreWeave ($CRWV). 🎧

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

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