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Outta The Park
Today’s RIP: Nvidia beats for 10th quarter, FOMC is divided, and more. 📰
Kevin Travers
November 19, 2025 • Reading Time: 14 minutes
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CLOSING BELL
Outta The Park
The market climbed into the close on Wednesday, the S&P 500 breaking its four-day losing streak as the street looked forward to the return of the prodigal AI datacenter leader to report.
Nvidia came in with yet another earnings beat, including in heavily scrutinized data center sales and gross margin.
The BLS said it was not dropping data on the October employment “situation” on Wednesday after taking a long, unpaid vacation during the government shutdown. September’s jobs report should arrive tomorrow.
Bitcoin was still falling off and on Wednesday, sending crypto stocks haywire. Coinbase fell below its IPO price from way back in 2021. 👀
Today’s RIP: Nvidia beats for 10th quarter, FOMC is divided, and more. 📰
5 of 11 sectors closed green. Tech $XLK ( ▲ 0.7% ) lead and energy $XLE ( ▼ 1.3% ) lagged.
AFTER THE BELL
‘Sales Are Off The Charts’: Nvidia Beats Q3 Estimates in 10th Quarter 💾
“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different,” Nvidia Chief Jensen Huang said, kicking off his presentation of the tenth quarter in a row his datacenter giant beat Wall Street estimates.
The wizz kid himself was happy to share that AI is a profit center for the whole industry: data center providers, hyperscalers using those datacenters, and companies using those trained models. Nvidia pulled in $57B in revenue, with $51.2B coming from data centers, and a gross margin that climbed to 73.4%. Revenue climbed 62% from last year.
Gaming sales were $4.3B, a little lower than estimates, but up 30% from last year.
For the coming quarter, Nvidia expects revenue of $65B ±2 %, and margins between 74-75%, well within the goal post of the $62B estimate.
Analysts are looking for 55% growth in revenue from last year, Q3 2026 Revenue $55.2B, and EPS $1.26, according to averages on Yahoo Finance. Analysts wanted datacenter sales of $49.1B. Gaming was expected at $4.6B.
CFO Colette Kress said Blackwell chips, the firm’s flagship model, are sold out.
"We currently have visibility to a half a trillion dollars in Blackwell and Rubin revenue from the start of this year through the end of calendar year 2026," Kress said.
In the past, Huang has used earnings calls to discuss promising opportunities for future sales. Huang said his chip sales could climb to $50B in revenue, depending on trade talks with China. Kress said their forward guidance still does not include any expected data from China, leaving some room for another miracle beat somewhere down the line.
The beat sent shockwaves through cold November markets. Mag 7 names were higher, $AVGO ( ▲ 4.09% ) was climbing, $AMD ( ▼ 2.93% ) was up 4%, and AI cloud computing specialists $CRWV ( ▲ 0.03% ) and $NBIS ( ▲ 5.0% ) were both up 8%.
Options analysts saw a 7% implied move in the stock +- after the report, which would be the largest market value move for the company ever, according to Reuters. $NVDA ( ▲ 2.85% ) was up 4% in the post-market, a gain of more than $300B.
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MACRO NEWS
FOMC Minutes Make December Rate Cut Need Christmas Miracle ❄️
The Federal Open Market Committee minutes from October’s rate cut meeting showed deep divisions about what to do next on rates. After the minutes came out, citing “strongly differing views” from participants, the changes of a cut at the December 10th meeting fell. Futures tracked by CME group reversed direction from a week ago, now showing just a 1-3 chance of a cut, and 60% chance of nothing happening.
It’s not that FOMC members said they did not want to cut again — many expressed their feelings more cuts are on the way — it’s that they were not in agreement of when to cut next.
“Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate as the Committee moved to a more neutral policy stance over time, although several of these participants indicated that they did not necessarily view another 25 basis point reduction as likely to be appropriate at the December meeting.”
That ball of old banker speak means: Rates are high, so is inflation, but so is the market, and we can’t agree on when to cut next. If data changes, we’ll for sure cut more.
Sounds great, but
The jobs data that could have pushed the Fed to cut again, possibly with a huge pair of ‘make housing a little cheaper scissors’ was the labor market data. Inflation is stuck, especially with tariffs raising prices on goods like meat and coffee, but labor data has shown some ugly signs of slowdown.
We saw negative job additions over the summer, and the past year of jobs data was overstated by nearly a million jobs. It was the main reason the FOMC cut rates in October, but the shutdown shut down data collection. The BLS said Wednesday that October and November Labor data isn’t coming until December 16, after the meeting, which might as well be 2027.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
Without that data coming out, and stable enough numbers from September, the FOMC can sit on its hands.
"Household survey data from the Current Population Survey could not be collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations," the BLS said, noting that the household data is "not able to be retroactively collected."
EARNINGS NEWS
More Earnings Results From Companies That Are Not Nvidia 🐿️
$TGT ( ▼ 2.77% ) : big box retailer Target reported EPS $1.78 vs. $1.73 expected; revenue $25.27B vs. $25.3B expected, EPS beat, revenue was a slight miss.
$LOW ( ▲ 4.03% ) : Lowe’s, the home improvement giant, reported EPS $3.06 vs. $2.95 expected; revenue $20.81B vs. $20.84B expected, EPS beat, revenue in line.
$TJX ( ▲ 0.16% ) : TJX Companies, an off‑price apparel and home fashions brand owner, beat on both EPS and revenue. Reported EPS $1.28 vs. $1.22 expected; revenue $15.12B vs. $14.9B expected.
$BLSH ( ▼ 3.63% ) : Digital assets exchange and financial services firm Bullish reported EPS of $0.10, in line with expectations; revenue of $76.5M vs. $71M expected, beating expectations.
$PANW ( ▼ 0.55% ) : Palo Alto Networks beat its first quarter results, with $0.93 adjusted EPS on revenue $2.474B. The networking giant sees full-year revenue of $10,500-10,540M. The stock was falling post market after they said they were buying Chronosphere for $3.35B.
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocktwits News Stories 🗞️
Circle stock fell below $69 listing price.
Bitcoin fell under $90K, $100M liquidated.
Merck HIV regimen matched Gilead’s Biktarvy efficacy.
Perplexity AI announced free agentic shopping launch.
Kraken filed IPO after $20B valuation.
Beyond Meat stock fell 40% this month.
Elon Musk announced xAI, Humain, Nvidia 500MW project.
MP Materials announced Saudi JV.
Oklo signed Siemens deal.
DoorDash upgraded by Jefferies, sees 23% upside.
Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️
STOCKTWITS VIDEO
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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Economic data: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM), Philly Fed Employment (8:30 AM), Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM), 10-Year TIPS Auction (1:00 PM)📊
Pre-Market Earnings: Walmart Inc ($WMT), Nano X Imaging Ltd ($NNOX), and Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd ($ZIM) 🛏️
After-Market Earnings: Webull Corp. ($BULL), Gap, Inc. ($GAP), and Intuit Inc ($INTU) 🌕️
$WMT ( ▼ 0.77% ) : Walmart is expected to report EPS $0.59 with revenue around $176B, showing modest growth.
$BULL ( ▼ 2.03% ) : Webull is expected to report EPS $0.02 with revenue ~$136M, reflecting brokerage growth.
$GAP ( ▼ 1.55% ) : Gap Inc, an apparel retailer, is expected to report EPS $0.58 with revenue ~$3.91B, slightly down YoY.
$INTU ( ▲ 0.14% ) : Intuit is expected to report EPS $3.09–$3.12 with revenue $3.74B–$3.76B, up ~14% YoY.
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