Rally Had Us Going In The First Half NGL

Even the GOP is criticizing tariffs, insurance firms boosted on a new government payout, and a pot stock got smoked.

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NEWS
Rally Had Us Going In The First Half NGL

Source: Tenor

Welp, the Vix closed at a five-year high, so your guess is as good as mine what’s going to happen tomorrow.

Like Monday, everything changed after someone tweeted. This time, stocks started to tank after a report from the White House that the Trump administration was moving forward with the 104% tariff salvo because China had not backed down.

The morning’s +4% rally fell away, and the market trended toward the red until the close, recording a $2.3T market cap loss for the S&P 500. The index closed below 5k points for the first time in nearly a year—welcome back. 👀

Today's issue covers Republicans criticizing the tariff drop, insurance firms climbing on a new government payout, and a pot stock getting smoked. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. All sectors closed red, with financials (-0.17%) leading and consumer discretionary (-4.29%) lagging.

Source: finviz

And here are the closing prices: 

S&P 500

4,983

-1.57%

Nasdaq

15,268

-2.15%

Russell 2000

1,761

-2.73%

Dow Jones

37,646

-0.84%

STOCKS
The Biggest To The Worst Turn Around 🐻 

Headlines this morning claimed it was the best one-day gain back for three years—before everyone remembered that yesterday, Trump legitimately doubled down on his reciprocal tariffs, now launching at midnight.

Remember, it’s tariffs on 86 countries, though China levies alone could amount to more than $400B in taxes collected this year based on last year's trade numbers. Double or nothing is not a great look for stocks, and the market sits 1% away from bear territory. 🤯 

Early in the day, BlackRock released a three-month downgrade on all US equities, and JPMorgan put the likelihood of a recession at 79%.

Morgan Stanley sided with BlackRock's Larry Fink on Tuesday when they said the Fed won’t cut rates this year if tariffs cause inflation. ⚠️ 

Even the GOP has started to voice concern, most notably from the U.S.’s retirement age hall monitors: Senators. Likely feeling the 401k pain, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis asked Trade Representative Jamieson Greer who he could strangle if this turns out to be a massive mistake.

Source: Fox Business

Tillis might have a point: He was asking when this would all end, when China says so, or when Trump says so. In response to unilateral tariffs on all goods, including steel, China said it was ready to fight until the end. ⚔️ 

A half dozen GOP Senators, including Sen. Mitch McConnell, signed a proposed Trade Review Act last week, granting Congress the right to review trade measures. However, the White House said it would veto the measure, duh.

Peter Navarro, an eight-year alumnus of Trump’s ear on trade, has made his way through more than a few TV interviews. Today, he claimed that 70 countries are on their way to negotiate with Trump, and for most, 0% tariffs won’t be enough. The U.S. needs reparations for buying more goods from places like Vietnam than Vietnam buys from the U.S., he said. 🤔 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the opposite earlier in the day, that negotiations could bring some “good deals.”

Telsa Chief Elon Musk, no longer appearing alongside Trump, has broken ranks as well to call out Navarro- calling him “truly a moron,” and “dumber than a sack of bricks” after facing criticsm. 😅 

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