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- Rate Cut Came, With Caution
Rate Cut Came, With Caution
Today’s RIP: Meta misses, Microsoft Beats (and falls), and Google wins out, plus more. 📰
Kevin Travers
October 29, 2025 • Reading Time: 14 minutes
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CLOSING BELL
Rate Cut Came, With Caution
The market started to turn and fall on Wednesday after the FOMC cut target interest rates as expected, but Chair Powell’s comments after the news dropped sent traders into sell mode.
Before that, Nvidia broke through $5T MK, and everything was dandy. Chief Huang said during the GPT Tech Conference that he expected a $500B order book before the year was up.
The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq hit all-time highs before pulling back. Powell said that any more rate cuts after today were not a given. The 10-year treasury sold off, rates went back above 4% on such a suggestion that the path forward is not as clear as a betting market graph would show. The argument to cut or not to cut was split between Fed Governor Stephen Miran, a recent Trump pick who wanted more off the top, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who voted for no cuts today.
Big tech earnings rounded out the day, and dare I say market reactions to the numbers felt more discerning this season. Microsoft beat all estimates, for example, and the stock is selling off from record-setting highs in after-market trade.
Tonight brings a planned sit-down between Trump and Xi, the world’s two leading economies represented by two old, round men. Let’s hope, as with the South Korean meeting, they hit it off on a good note and everything goes well. 🦳
Today’s RIP: Meta misses, Microsoft Beats (and falls), and Google wins out, plus more. 📰
3 of 11 sectors closed green. Energy $XLE ( ▲ 0.74% ) lead and real estate $XLRE ( ▼ 2.73% ) lagged.
AFTER THE BELL
Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft: Here’s How The Mag 7 Did 😇
Meta’s options exposure implied a ~7% move up or down after it reported earnings Wednesday, and it turned out to be on the red side.
The social media giant $META ( ▲ 0.03% ) reported third-quarter apps revenue climbed 26% to $51.24 billion, surpassing the average analyst estimate of $49.59 billion, but that beat did not trickle down to shares. EPS was just $1.05, the Street was expecting $6.72, after a $15.93 one-time tax charge took net income from $18.64B to $2.71B.
It wasn’t the only Mag 7 tech name reporting on Wednesday.
$GOOG ( ▲ 2.51% ) and $GOOGL was up +5% after its report of surging revenue, driven by a 34% bump in Google Cloud to $15.16B.
The search and ad sales monster pulled in $102.35B in the quarter, climbing 16%, and net income climbed 33%. Alphabet is on track to spend $91-$93B on CapEx for AI and datacenter growth.
“We delivered our first-ever $100 billion quarter,” said Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google.
Microsoft was a similar datacenter story, but was falling, $MSFT ( ▼ 0.1% ) Azure cloud growth was somehow not good enough despite a 39% YoY climb to $49.1B in the quarter. Revenue was up 18% to $77.7B, profit at $3.72/share, both beating estimates, but it was all not enough for after-market traders.
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INDUSTRY NEWS
Carvana Beat Records, but the Weakening Consumer Hit Their Bottom Line
Carvana $CVNA ( ▼ 2.28% ) reported its best-ever quarter revenue of a whopping $5.6B, selling 156k cars, but the stock was falling nearly 10%, and only a shrewd loan head would tell why.
The used-car seller sold 44% more cars this quarter than a year ago, but Barron's and Bloomberg cite deteriorating U.S. auto loan health as a reason for the stock's dive. Basically, Carvana originates auto loans itself, then sells them right away. If auto loan delinquency rates keep getting worse, who would buy record-setting numbers of Carvana loans? 60-day auto delinquencies are rising to 6.5%, according to Fitch Ratings, the highest since Fitch Ratings started tracking late payers in 1994.
Auto loan health in part led to the collapse of three regional lenders in the past quarter, and cost investment banking giants like JPMorgan hundreds of millions in ‘charge-offs’ or in layman’s terms ‘money burned in a pit.’
Big Short comparisons aside, Carvana also fell because it had to write down its EPS to $1.03, below estimates for $1.30, due to a net income loss of $120M from its 2021 investment in fintech auto insurerer $ROOT ( ▲ 0.32% ). Net income still nearly doubled to $263M YoY.
Carvana made a deal for stock warrants before Root lost 80% of its stock value in the fintech valuation collapse that followed the Covid era.
Carvana watchers were really not impressed on Wednesday after the bell.
It wasn’t the only falling name after the bell. $CMG ( ▼ 1.24% ) was trending, falling 16% after missing estimates for comparative sales, and cut its same store forecast for the thrid time this year. Chief Scott Boartwright said on the firm’s shareholder call that the mainstay customer, people 25-35 who make less than $100k a year, are getting hit harder by student loans, unemployment, and a slowing economy. Looks like Gen Z is buying fewer Chipotle bowls. 🌯
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MACRO
Fed Cuts Rates, Powell Said Hold Your December Cut Horses
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut the key borrowing rate by 25 basis points, bringing down the federal funds rate to the 3.75% to 4% range, in line with market expectations.
This is the second rate cut announced by the Fed in 2025, after a similar 25 bps cut in September. Here’s some highlights from the Fed press conference with Chair Powell:
Powell warned markets not to assume another cut in December: “Far from a foregone conclusion.”
GDP forecast trimmed to 1.6% for 2025, down from 2.4%.
Core PCE inflation running at 2.8%, but Powell says excluding tariffs it’s closer to 2.3%–2.4%.
Labor market softening: “Job gains have slowed,” and “downside risks to employment have risen.”
Fed to freeze balance sheet runoff on Dec. 1, reinvesting MBS proceeds into Treasuries.
Government shutdown could cloud December decision: “When you’re driving in a fog, you slow down.”
As always, Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s 2% inflation target: “Absolutely committed.” 😆
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocktwits News Stories 🗞️
Fiserv plunged 42% after leadership shakeup and forecast cuts.
Government shutdown could cost U.S. economy $14B.
Apple earnings could double by 2030, says BAC.
Caterpillar climbed 11% on booming AI-driven energy demand.
CleanSpark unveils Texas AI data hub to diversify operations.
Don’t miss a story! Follow @StocktwitsNews for a live feed in real time. ✍️
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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Economic data: GDP Q3 (8:30 AM), Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 PM). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: Roblox ($RBLX). 🛏️
After-Market Earnings: Apple ($AAPL) Amazon ($AMZN), Coinbase ($COIN), Roku ($ROKU), Riot Platforms ($RIOT), Gilead Sciences ($GILD), MicroStrategy ($MSTR), Rocket Companies ($RKT), and Twilio ($TWLO). 🌕️
Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.26% ) Q4 preview: $1.73 EPS on $101.2B rev. iPhone +7.6%, Services +12.3%, Wearables -8.1%
Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.46% ) Q3 preview: $1.57 EPS on $177.9B rev. AWS +18%, Ads +21%, Online Stores $66.5B
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