The market climbed with more gusto Wednesday despite an FOMC report from last month’s meeting that showed voting members came to the table without a big appetite for cuts.

Of course, in the vague way all Fed speech slithers out of Washington, the minutes also had plenty to support the idea that if inflation comes down, rates come down.

Either way, the news did little to stop the third day of S&P 500 gains. Mag 7 stocks rebounded, Amazon pulling further away from its record losing streak. Energy stocks were shining the brightest, or burning the brightest, after peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended before anyone made peace, and U.S. - Iran relations did anything but cool. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for hours to practice naval exercises, a 20 million barrel a day artery that they can lever to cut supply.

At the same time, the U.S. withdrew forces from Syria, while naval and air forces deployed off Iran’s coast. A second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is heading there now.

eBay shares surged 7% after the company announced a $1.2 billion cash buy out of the fashion marketplace Depop from Etsy, paired with a significant Q4 earnings beat. The deal marks a major consolidation in the "recommerce" sector, as the e-commerce giant moves to capture a younger demographic.

The quarterly results outperformed analyst expectations with revenue reaching nearly $3 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share landed at $1.41 vs. the $1.35 consensus, while Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) grew 10% to $21.2 billion.

The outlook turned bullish as the deal allows both companies to refocus, with Etsy shares also jumping 14% on plans to use the proceeds for a $750 million stock buyback. Etsy bought the brand for $1.68B in 2021. eBay issued strong Q1 guidance of $3.05 billion in revenue, signaling that the integration of Depop will serve as a primary catalyst for sustained growth in the circular fashion market through 2026.

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One stock is showing software does not need to fear AI. Figma shares rocketed 15% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the design software leader said if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.

The Q4 results outperformed estimates, revenue hitting $303.8 million. Adjusted earnings per share reached $0.08.

Growth came from Figma Make, an AI tool that saw weekly active users surge 70% quarter-over-quarter. AI models from Anthropic and Google use a ton of computing, but the company maintained an 86% adjusted gross margin without breaking the bank to process design requests.

Management’s outlook showed the hope for sustainable AI monetization, guiding Q1 revenue to a range of $315 million–$317 million, well above the $292 million consensus. Starting in March, Figma will enforce new AI credit limits, positioning the company to hit $1.37 billion in total 2026 revenue.

Carvana reported a massive 58% year-over-year revenue explosion for Q4 2025, yet shares tumbled over 20% in after-hours trading. A miss on adjusted EBITDA and rising operational expenses hit the price by -15% after hours, despite a 43% climb in cars sold YoY to 596,641 in 2025. The catalyst for the sell-off was a squeeze in unit economics, as gross profit per unit fell by $255 to $3,076.

DoorDash delivered a "watershed" Q4 2025 featuring record-breaking order volumes, and the stock climbed 12% even as management warned of heavy investment spend for the year ahead. They are getting in on the AI capEx game: Management’s 2026 outlook includes several hundred million dollars in incremental spending to scale autonomous delivery and AI-native infrastructure.

The Federal Reserve is signaling a stark departure from its recent easing cycle, with January meeting minutes that dropped Wednesday showing a growing internal divide over persistent inflation. While the central bank paused its string of cuts, some officials are now floating the possibility of returning to rate hikes if price stability remains elusive.

“The vast majority of participants judged that downside risks to employment had moderated recently while the risk of more persistent inflation remained,” the minutes said. “Several participants cautioned that easing policy further in the context of elevated inflation readings could be misinterpreted as implying diminished policymaker commitment to the 2% inflation objective.”

Benchmark rates were held steady at a 3.50%–3.75% range in a 10-2 vote, on Jan. 28th ending a streak of three consecutive quarter-point reductions. Several participants argued to put rate increases back on the table if inflation stays at 3%

While Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran dissented in favor of an immediate cut to support the labor market, the majority shifted focus to a "cyclical bottom" in hiring and a dip in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This leaves the incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, a man known for calling for rate increases, in a difficult position. His nomination by Trump was done with the experes puropose of aiming for cuts.

Happy Chinese Lunar New Year, the Year of the Horse has officially begun. We are all thinking, what does this mean for markets? If you scroll Fintwitter as much as I do, you’ll know its a complicated question.

Ryan Detrick, CMT, said data shows the market seems to like animals that walk on all fours. Horse, Goat, Ox, Pig, and Dog show the strongest performing years in the 12-year cycle, often delivering double-digit gains. Two-legged signs like the Rooster and Monkey come up short.

Stephanie Guild, CFA, warns that the market may go wild.  She said stock buybacks may be thinning, doubling over the last five years to $925 billion, but as companies shift cash toward capital investments, buyback demand could decline by 5% this year. 

That if buybacks are low, IPOs may be the highest in a decade, save for 2021. We have already seen dozens of new listings and SPACs in 2026, with over 150 more rumored or planned. 

And the year has already been wild: the S&P 500 has remained mostly resilient, but software stocks and the Magnificent Seven have taken a hit, with the Mag 7 Index slumping 7.2%. Software stocks  are near “capitulation territory" after an eight-session losing streak wiped out 15% of their value. Analysts at Jefferies found that 42% of software stocks are trading near historical low valuations, with the sector trading below 20 times forward earnings for the first time ever.

But while AI giants are horsing around, the software subsector is still expected to post 14.1% earnings growth in 2026, still outpacing the 13.7% growth anticipated for the overall S&P 500. So does that mean they are a buy or not? Will the year of the horse follow the trend, or Buck it? 🐴

Earnings are the highest-stakes moments in trading, but if you aren’t staring at a terminal, you’re already behind. We’ve changed that.

Starting today, Stocktwits will notify you the second an AI-powered Earnings Summary is published for any stock on your watchlist. Whether you’re on the move or at your desk, we’ve got you covered:

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8 backcountry skiers dead, one still missing after avalanche near Lake Tahoe, officials say

🍏 Apple Decouples From Nasdaq, Offering Alternative to AI-Fueled Volatility

📺 'Difficult' Russia-Ukraine peace talks end without breakthrough

👀 Zuckerberg testimony: Company consulted stakeholders about keeping beauty filters

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Macro: Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg Index, 10-Year Note Auction, Existing Home Sales. 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $BABA, $WMT, $ETSY, $W, $DE, $FUN, $YETI, $KLAR, $TECK, $ALIT, $SO, $UP, $SATS, $PWR, $EPAM, $FTI. ☀️

After-Market Earnings: $OPEN, $RIG, $DBX, $NEM, $CEG, $VAL, $AKAM, $LYV, $SFM, $RNG, $CENX, $CC, $PK, $CPRT, $TXRH, $ED. 🌙

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

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