Presented by

NEWS
Three Things Are Sure: Death, Change, and Tariffs

Happy tax day! The market fell slightly, shaking off the weekend's tariff talk, studying earnings results with a return to calm: at long last, it was almost a normal news day.

For all you bears out there, there was still negativity, dw. 

On Monday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 formed a ‘death cross’ after their 50-day MAs moved below their 200-day MAs for the first time since 2022. The last time this happened, the market fell 11% before the 50 broke back above the 200, almost a year later. 👀

Today's issue covers United making room for a recession, banks, brokers, and JNJ mostly beating earnings, and other moves. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 4 of 11 sectors closed green, with technology (+0.79%) leading and consumer discretionary (-1.32%) lagging.

And here are the closing prices: 

STOCKS
Fly United Fly (Unless The Economy Tanks) ✈️ 

United Airlines broke a trend we did not know existed Tuesday when it gave two separate forward-looking earnings expectations for the year: one normal and one with the “r-word.”

The airline posted its best quarter in five years, adjusted to $0.91/share on revenue of $13.2 billion. The firm's success sent the stock higher nearly 7% after hours and rubbed off on the airline industry, sending even twice-beaten-down Delta up almost 4%.

There was one glaring warning. United provided a ‘Stable Environment Scenario’ that tracks the firm toward full-year earnings potential up to $13.50/share. It also provided more sinister guidance based on a Recessionary Environment Scenario, which amounts to an entire quarter less of earnings at the high end. ⚠️ 

Bloomberg TV hosts said they had never seen anything like it before, and the strangeness of what seems like such an expected recession might lead other firms to give double-sided guidance through the rest of the reporting season.

The firm also said it would slash its domestic capacity starting in the third quarter by 4%.

Big If True:

The two-part outlook actually makes some cents. Firms going into this earnings season have to face a volatile short-term market and juggle predictions of consumer demand and trade prices with daily changes of tariff scenarios. Worse, they have to face their shareholders and decide to tell them about the future. Unfortunately, if your CEO doesn’t have Truth social alerts on for the president, you’re NGMI.

Some firms, like Delta, held back their predictions. Others, like JP Morgan, gave no specific expectations. Instead, heads like Chief Jamie Dimon warned of struggle ahead on their investor relations call. No matter how an executive team decides to handle it, one thing is for sure: Tariffs are not going anywhere yet. The Trump administration said they have about 15 proposed deals on the table from (hopefully) multiple countries. 115 more to go; 83 days left.

Meanwhile, trade disputes with China are already hurting U.S. firms: Boeing sank 2% today after President Xi ordered China to halt imports or purchases of Boeing Planes. 🛫

SPONSORED
Missed Zillow on Day One? Here’s Your Do-Over.

Zillow helped millions buy their first home.

Now, the company’s co-founder is reimagining how people buy second homes through Pacaso.

Pacaso has already facilitated over $1B in real estate transactions, helping everyday buyers co-own homes in 40+ top destinations.

• 💡 Same founder. New model.

•  💸 Earns fees on every transaction.

• 🌍 80% of homes sell out fast.

While Zillow soared post-IPO, Pacaso is offering investors the chance to invest now.

👉 Reserve your shares in Pacaso as a private company

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here. This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. There’s no guarantee that Pacaso will file for an IPO.