Welcome Back To The Red

Today’s RIP: Trump tweets sending market falling back a month, Bitcoin miners are now AI datacenters, Peace prize insider trading, and more.

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CLOSING BELL
Welcome Back To The Red

The market tanked Friday, the first +-1% change for the S&P 500 for weeks, and ended with a nearly 3% haircut. Equities were green in the morning, but one long tweet from Trump sent markets down, as the president threatened brand new massive tariffs on China and shelved plans for a meeting with Chinese President Xi later this month. The Fed also began massive layoffs, by one source, firing 200k federal workers as a part of the ongoing Government shutdown.

John Belton Gabelli, Funds Portfolio Manager, said the market was waiting for a down day after enjoying a 40% climb since liberation day. Belton said it was just one day, and we will know more after Trump speaks more this weekend, and when markets open on Columbus Day. That clarification came quickly: Trump later Friday announced plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, effective November 1, which would bring the total tariffs to 130%.

Tech got hit the hardest; it’s the worst day since April 10th. The market is open on Monday, a high-volume day that many people have off, so there's plenty of time to trade; let’s hope it rebounds. 👀

Today’s RIP: Trump tweets sending market falling back a month, Bitcoin miners are now AI datacenters, Peace prize insider trading, and more. 📰

1 of 11 sectors closed green, with staples $XLP ( ▲ 0.08% ) leading and tech $XLK ( ▼ 4.07% ) lagging.

MACRO STOCKS
Days Since Tariff Talk Crashed The Market: 0

The market fell the most since the major tariff announcement after a rare earth spat. China announced new export controls days ago, but it’s as if Trump noticed today, taking to Truth Social to tweet out a 500-word rant. Trump sees ‘no reason’ to meet with Xi, after China’s ‘hostile’ export moves.

Late Friday, Trump tweeted specifics.

Trump’s call for 100%+ tariffs, if implemented, brings the total to a little lower than the 145% threat needed at the beginning of his administration, but still higher than ever before.

The major indexes fell, Bitcoin $BTC.X ( ▼ 5.49% ) was down, Eth $ETH.X ( ▼ 9.07% ) pulled back 7%, and the $SMH ( ▼ 5.76% ) Vaneck Semiconductor ETF fell overall, as Nvidia and chip makers pulled back 4%-5%. After the second tweet hit Friday before 5 PM, the S&P 500 fell further, hitting the 50-day moving average.

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China controls 70% of rare earths, and this week started to require licenses for U.S. firms to export products containing rare earths or using Chinese refinery equipment starting Dec. 1.

Tom Keene, managing editor of Bloomberg News, said there is a difference between risk and uncertainty. Risk is quantifiable and can be priced in, but uncertainty is frightening to markets.

Katie Greifeld, Bloomberg Reporter, said this could be a hopeful revival of the ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’ Taco Trade, and that this is just part of a negotiation strategy. 🌮 

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INDUSTRY NEWS
Bitcoin Miners? You Mean AI Datacenters 💾 

Applied Digital $APLD ( ▲ 16.05% ) climbed after the one-time bitcoin miner, now datacenter-for-hire company, reported Q1 2026 numbers that beat expectations.

The company’s Thursday night showed a 84% jump in data center revenue to $64M. The firm builds data centers to rent out its processing power to the highest bidder, which, for the past couple years, was $MARA ( ▼ 7.67% ) bitcoin mining.

The company said its North Dakota Polaris FORGE data center, leased to Coreweave $CRWV ( ▼ 3.25% ) is up and running and leased for the next 15 years.

It’s not the only bitcoin miner outfitting for the next fad: mining industry stocks were one of the only green industries on Friday after Bernstein analysts said bitcoin miners were well-equipped to jump the cryptoship and start renting processing power to AI companies.

IREN $IREN ( ▼ 6.39% ) and TeraWulf $WULF ( ▼ 0.59% ) , CleanSpark $CLSK ( ▼ 4.03% ) were all climbing.

DEGENERATE ECONOMY
Polymarket Bet On Nobel Winner Looks Like Insider Trading 🤔 

Some things are too good to be true. Norwegian authorities are looking into an insider trading scandal after this morning’s Nobel Peace Prize went out to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, but her odds of winning the prize spiked hours before the official release on the bet-on-anything app Polymarket.

According to Bloomberg, the chances Machado would be the selected winner jumped right after the five-member Norwegian committee decided around midnight local time.

“We take this very seriously,” Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, told Bloomberg. “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.”

Some traders made their first bets ever on the decision, making tens of thousands on their bets. Lucky, or dastardly?

Harpviken said it’s happened before that the word got out before the public decision, but never in a way that involved betting. 🃏 

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The Trump Tweet made me reshoot because the market tanked right after I was finished saying markets were great on Friday.

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